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MEDIFAST INC (MED) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Margin of safety$18.00 ComplexityAverage Updated
Analysis Owner's Earnings Geography Growth Strategy Chart Analysis Competitors Circle of Competence
$21.00 $51.00
bear $21.00 base $40.00 bull $51.00 margin of safety $18.00 market price* $11.88
Business condition attached to the margin of safety Active-coach count decline narrowing for two consecutive quarters, evidencing a stabilizing rather than a continuing structural decline.
Medifast sells weight-management products and coaching, primarily through its OPTAVIA brand, using an independent-coach direct-selling model rather than retail distribution. The business is being tested by the rapid adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss medications, which compete directly for the same customer need Medifast has historically served and which has driven active-coach counts and revenue down substantially from prior peaks. We corrected one figure from the prior write-up: it had cited roughly $257 million (about $23 per share) of cash and investments. The audited balance sheet shows cash plus short-term investments of approximately $167 million (about $15 per share) — the earlier figure appears to have mixed in a different period or a different definition of liquid assets. We have used the corrected, verified balance-sheet figure throughout this analysis. Owner earnings have declined meaningfully as active-coach counts have fallen, but the company remains debt-free with a substantial net cash position relative to its market value, and it continues to generate positive owner earnings even at reduced volumes because the direct-selling model has low fixed capital requirements and can scale down with revenue. The base case assumes the active-coach decline continues to moderate but does not reverse, consistent with the trend over the last several reported quarters, and that the company right-sizes its cost structure to match a smaller but stabilized coach base. The bear case assumes GLP-1 adoption continues to erode the addressable market with no offsetting product response, pushing the business toward a smaller steady-state size than the base case assumes. The bull case assumes management's efforts to integrate GLP-1-adjacent positioning (nutritional support for medication users, rather than competing head-on) gain traction, consistent with initiatives the company has already begun describing, stabilizing the coach and revenue base at a level closer to today's than the bear case would imply. The net cash position provides real downside protection: even in the bear case, shareholders are not exposed to leverage risk on top of the operating decline. An estimate above the base case would depend on two consecutive quarters of active-coach counts stabilizing.
Fiscal yearOwner's earningsMethodology
2025 $0.31 ▼
OE = CFO − ΔWC − SBC − maintenance capex, from audited CF statement (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001628280-26-008656). CFO=$6,863K. Non-cash addbacks: D&A $14,242K, non-cash lease expense $4,624K, loss on disposal $1,373K, realized gain on investments $(3,310)K, amortization of discount $(671)K, deferred income taxes $11,460K, unrealized gain on equity investments $(17)K, supply-chain-optimization charge = $0 (did not recur). WC movement (inventory $22,193K + income taxes $(6,601)K + prepaid/other $573K + other assets $(2,057)K + AP & accrued $(23,913)K) = $(9,805)K — a working-capital drag, removed as a timing swing (added back here). SBC=$7,639K. Capex=$5,614K; revenue declined y/y (385,788 vs 602,463) so growth capex=$0, maintenance capex=capex=$5,614K. OE = 6,863 − (−9,805) − 7,639 − 5,614 = $3,415K. Diluted shares=10,981K. OE/sh=$0.31. Note: active earning coaches fell 40.6% y/y in Q4 2025 (16,100 vs 27,100) with no sign yet of stabilization; this figure likely still overstates the eventual trough given the decline was ongoing through year-end.
2024 $1.77 ▼
OE = CFO − ΔWC − SBC − maintenance capex, from audited CF statement (FY2025 10-K comparative). CFO=$24,476K. Non-cash addbacks: D&A $12,707K, non-cash lease expense $4,490K, loss on disposal $89K, realized gain on investments $(95)K, amortization of discount $(799)K, deferred income taxes $(7,403)K, unrealized loss on equity investments $4,089K, non-cash supply-chain-optimization charges (accelerated depreciation + impairment of Maryland distribution center held for sale) $11,689K. WC movement (inventory $12,170K + income taxes $10,212K + prepaid/other $2,471K + other assets $396K + AP & accrued $(34,994)K) = $(9,745)K. SBC=$7,363K. Capex=$7,454K; revenue declined y/y (602,463 vs 1,072,054) so growth capex=$0, maintenance capex=capex=$7,454K. OE = 24,476 − (−9,745) − 7,363 − 7,454 = $19,404K. Diluted shares=10,963K. OE/sh=$1.77. Note: year of the $12.5M supply-chain-optimization charge (Ridgely, MD distribution-center closure) — correctly added back as non-cash/one-time per CFO reconciliation, but the underlying revenue collapse (GLP-1-driven active-coach attrition, coaches down sharply y/y) is real and structural, addressed in the growth path rather than the earnings level.
2023 $10.32 ▼
OE = CFO − ΔWC − SBC − maintenance capex, from audited CF statement (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001628280-26-008656). CFO=$147,657K. Non-cash addbacks: D&A $13,107K, non-cash lease expense $4,607K, SBC $8,188K (added back then subtracted once below), loss on disposal $1,172K, amortization of discount $(169)K, deferred income taxes $1,211K, unrealized gain on equity investments $(150)K. WC movement (inventory $64,265K + income taxes $(9,155)K + prepaid/other $5,567K + other assets $(4,694)K + AP & accrued $(35,707)K) = $20,276K. Capex=$6,483K; revenue declined y/y (1,072,054 vs 1,598,577) so growth capex=$0, maintenance capex=capex=$6,483K. OE = 147,657 − 20,276 − 8,188 − 6,483 = $112,710K. Diluted shares=10,921K. OE/sh=$10.32. Note: first full year of active-coach decline; still reflects elevated pandemic-era customer base partly unwinding.
2022 $12.95 ▼
OE = CFO − ΔWC − SBC − maintenance capex, from audited CF statement (FY2022 10-K, accession 0001628280-23-004341). CFO=$194,570K. Non-cash addbacks: D&A $10,980K, non-cash lease expense $6,098K, loss on disposal $2,130K, amortization of premium $14K, deferred income taxes $(924)K. WC movement (inventory $61,187K + income taxes $1,373K + prepaid/other $97K + other assets $(3,412)K + AP & accrued $(37,594)K) = $21,651K. SBC=$11,053K. Capex=$16,681K; growth capex=max(0,1.173%×(1,598,577−1,526,087))=$850K; maintenance capex=$15,831K. OE = 194,570 − 21,651 − 11,053 − 15,831 = $146,035K. Diluted shares=11,276K. OE/sh=$12.95. Note: revenue/coach-count peak; active-coach decline began Q1 2023.
2021 $12.28 ▼
OE = CFO − ΔWC − SBC − maintenance capex, from audited CF statement (FY2022 10-K comparative). CFO=$94,545K. Non-cash addbacks: D&A $6,812K, non-cash lease expense $5,069K, loss on disposal $2K, amortization of premium $89K, deferred income taxes $(3,715)K. WC movement (inventory $(126,651)K + income taxes $(945)K + prepaid/other $(9,887)K + other assets $(4,543)K + AP & accrued $54,380K) = $(87,646)K — a large working-capital drag from aggressive inventory build during peak demand. SBC=$9,903K. Capex=$34,209K (major distribution-capacity expansion); growth capex=max(0,1.173%×(1,526,087−934,842))=$6,936K; maintenance capex=$27,273K. OE = 94,545 − (−87,646) − 9,903 − 27,273 = $145,015K. Diluted shares=11,813K. OE/sh=$12.28. Note: pandemic-boom peak year; not representative of sustainable run-rate.
2020 $9.13 ▼
OE = CFO − ΔWC − SBC − maintenance capex, from audited CF statement (FY2022 10-K comparative, accession 0001628280-23-004341). CFO=$145,196K. Non-cash addbacks: D&A $4,316K, non-cash lease expense $3,189K, loss on disposal $212K, amortization of premium $320K, deferred income taxes $601K. WC movement (inventory $(4,621)K + income taxes $5,169K + prepaid/other $1,086K + other assets $(2,741)K + AP & accrued $28,010K) = $26,903K. SBC=$6,796K. Capex=$5,887K; growth capex=max(0,1.173%×(934,842−713,672))=$2,594K; maintenance capex=$3,293K. OE = 145,196 − 26,903 − 6,796 − 3,293 = $108,204K. Diluted shares=11,850K. OE/sh=$9.13. Note: pandemic-era demand surge year; not representative of sustainable run-rate.
2019 $6.66 ▼
OE = CFO − ΔWC − SBC − maintenance capex, from audited CF statement (FY2019 10-K, accession 0001558370-20-001889). CFO=$84,261K. Non-cash addbacks: D&A $4,624K, amortization of premium $454K, deferred income taxes $1,598K, bad debt expense $3,638K, loss on disposal $17K. WC movement (AR $(4,064)K + inventory $(9,883)K + income taxes prepaid $(5,169)K + prepaid/other $(1,510)K + other assets $9K + AP & accrued $12,111K) = $(8,506)K. SBC=$4,520K. Capex=$10,058K; growth capex=max(0,1.173%×(713,672−501,003))=$2,495K; maintenance capex=$7,563K. OE = 84,261 − (−8,506) − 4,520 − 7,563 = $80,684K. Diluted shares=12,117K. OE/sh=$6.66.
2018 $4.69 ▼
OE = CFO − ΔWC − SBC − maintenance capex, from audited CF statement (FY2019 10-K comparative). CFO=$60,816K. Non-cash addbacks: D&A $4,435K, amortization of premium $571K, deferred income taxes $(2,687)K, bad debt expense $1,058K, loss on disposal $48K. WC movement (AR $(936)K + inventory $(18,658)K + income taxes prepaid $2,272K + prepaid/other $(282)K + other assets $65K + AP & accrued $16,017K) = $(1,522)K. SBC=$3,124K. Capex=$4,940K; growth capex=max(0,1.173%×(501,003−301,563))=$2,339K; maintenance capex=$2,601K. OE = 60,816 − (−1,522) − 3,124 − 2,601 = $56,613K. Diluted shares=12,079K. OE/sh=$4.69.
2017 $2.43 ▼
OE = CFO − ΔWC − SBC − maintenance capex, from audited CF statement (FY2019 10-K comparative, accession 0001558370-20-001889). CFO=$43,237K. Non-cash addbacks: D&A $4,209K, amortization of premium on investments $703K, deferred income taxes $(623)K, bad debt expense $151K, loss on disposal of PP&E $94K. Working-capital movement (AR $664K + inventory $(1,017)K + income taxes prepaid $(1,023)K + prepaid/other $(686)K + other assets $(1,876)K + AP & accrued expenses $10,653K) = $6,715K, removed as a timing swing. SBC=$4,267K. Capex=$3,242K; growth capex = max(0, 1.173%×(301,563−274,534))=$317K (capex_ratio=mean(capex/revenue) FY2016–FY2025); maintenance capex=$2,925K. OE = 43,237 − 6,715 − 4,267 − 2,925 = $29,330K. Diluted shares=12,088K. OE/sh=$2.43.
2016 $1.95 ▼
OE = CFO − ΔWC − SBC − maintenance capex, from audited CF statement (FY2016 10-K, accession 0001144204-17-015143). CFO=$25,350K (continuing ops $25,990K less $640K discontinued-operations cash use, immaterial legacy divested business). Non-cash addbacks (continuing ops): D&A $5,405K, realized loss on investment securities $313K, deferred income taxes $(2,829)K, impairment of fixed assets $6,083K, gain on disposal $(12)K. WC movement (inventory $(4,976)K + AR $246K + income taxes prepaid $300K + prepaid/other $(616)K + other assets $43K + AP & accrued $770K) = $(4,233)K. SBC=$3,428K. Capex=$2,876K; growth capex=max(0,1.173%×(274,534−272,773))=$21K (capex_ratio=mean(capex/revenue) FY2016–FY2025); maintenance capex=$2,855K. OE = 25,350 − (−4,233) − 3,428 − 2,855 = $23,300K. Diluted shares=11,947K. OE/sh=$1.95.

Owner's earnings per share by fiscal year, most recent first. Tap a row to see how that figure was calculated, including the source filing.

Sales geography
Primarily United States, sold through an independent-coach direct-selling network nationwide.
Historical growth strategy

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Chart analysis

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Competitors

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Circle of competence

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