MDB Capital Holdings, LLC (MDBH) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

MDB Capital Holdings operates a small securities-brokerage and venture platform in Addison, Texas. Its broker-dealer (Public Ventures) earns fees from advising and underwriting offerings for early-stage technology companies and often receives warrants; a sister unit (PatentVest) provides patent analysis and legal services. The company also holds 3.93 million shares, about 47%, of eXoZymes, a pre-revenue enzyme-technology company it helped launch and which went public in November 2024. It has no borrowings, so there is no debt to deduct. What the business earns. On a full owner-earnings basis (operating cash flow, less working-capital swings, less stock compensation, less maintenance spending) the company has lost roughly $1.11, $1.51, $2.22 and $1.87 per share in 2022 through 2025. Fee income roughly doubled in 2025 to $4.3 million and compensation costs fell from $20.1 million to $15.0 million, but operating cash burn was still $5.7 million and stock compensation, a real cost that dilutes owners, was $11.8 million. The first half of 2026 shows cash burn of $5.5 million versus $3.4 million a year earlier, and cash of $9.6 million at June 30, 2026, versus $13.2 million at year-end. We use the 2024-2025 period, after the eXoZymes deconsolidation and IPO, as the earnings base: about $(19) million a year, or about $(1.9) per share. Trailing improvement in 2025 was about 10%; we assume no improvement in year one of the base case because 2026 burn is running higher. What the shares own. Liquid assets: about $9.6 million cash plus $7.4 million of securities held by the broker-dealer, about $16.6 million after small payables, or about $1.66 per share on roughly 10 million shares. eXoZymes is carried at $37.5 million ($9.55 per eXoZymes share), essentially its November 2024 IPO price of $10.36 less MDB's share of its losses. eXoZymes has no revenue, and its own balance sheet at the end of 2024 showed only about $10 million of net assets. We could not verify a current market value for that stake from the filings, and it is the largest and least certain piece of value. Base case: about $0.41 per share. The platform keeps burning at about the 2025 level (about $18.7 million a year of owner earnings including stock compensation) for roughly three years, the runway that today's liquid assets support at the 2025 cash burn, at which point nothing evidenced continues. The business is worth about $(50) million (a present-value drag), against $16.6 million of liquid assets and the $37.5 million eXoZymes carrying value, leaving about $4 million. No debt is owed. We give no credit for fee growth beyond 2025, because one year of doubling from a small base is not a repeatable record, nor for new partner companies, which are unproven. Bear case: about $0.20 per share. Burn runs at the first-half 2026 pace (about $11 million cash plus roughly $10 million stock compensation a year), liquid assets are used up in about 18 months, and eXoZymes is worth only its look-through net assets of about $1 million. The company would have to raise capital or sell holdings on poor terms; existing holders keep a residual of about $2 million. Bull case: about $2.53 per share. Fee income keeps growing and compensation keeps falling, taking owner losses to about zero within three years (about $(33) million of cumulative present-value losses), while eXoZymes holds its IPO-day value of $42 million including warrants. That leaves about $25 million, or $2.53 per share. What could make this wrong. If eXoZymes' shares are worth materially more than $37.5 million, or the company cuts costs faster than 2025's pace, value is higher. If eXoZymes' shares have fallen, or burn accelerates, value is lower. Results for the second quarter of 2026 come only from the filed data tags, as the full 10-Q text was not reviewed. Two founders hold the Class B shares and more than 50% of the votes, so outside holders cannot force a change in strategy.