Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Mobileye designs the EyeQ vision chips and driver-assistance software used in automatic emergency braking, lane keeping and hands-free driving systems, selling mostly through Tier 1 suppliers to automakers, plus its higher-priced SuperVision system directly to a few brands. Revenue was $1,894 million in 2025 (up 15% after a 20% fall in 2024 when Tier 1 customers worked off excess chip inventory), and $1,066 million in the first half of 2026 (up about 13%). One customer accounted for 30% of 2025 revenue. Intel controls about 77% of the shares. How we measure earnings. We start from operating cash flow, remove swings in working capital (inventory, receivables, payables), and then charge the full cost of share-based pay ($277 million in 2025, up from $174 million in 2022) and the maintenance part of capital spending (about $63 million). On that basis owner earnings per share were about $0.16 (2020), $0.44, $0.57, $0.51, -$0.09 (2024) and $0.05 (2025). Mobileye carries no borrowings, so nothing is added back for interest. Roughly $443 million a year of acquisition-related amortization (scheduled to fall to $333 million in 2026 and $179 million in 2027) and goodwill write-downs of $2.7 billion (2024) and $3.8 billion (first half of 2026) are non-cash and do not reduce these figures; the write-downs do show that the acquisition value carried on the books has not been earned back. We use the 2023-2025 window (about $38 million a year, or roughly $0.05 per share on 841 million shares) because it spans an inventory build (2023), a destock (2024) and the recovery (2025) at a revenue level equal to today's, with today's higher share-pay costs. The stronger 2022 and 2023 results reflect a lower cost base and customers stocking up, so we do not treat them as normal. We also strip about $25 million a year of interest earned on the cash pile so it is not counted twice. Growth path check. Owner earnings improved by about $110 million in 2025 from a negative 2024. For 2026 we assume owner earnings of about $60 million against the $38 million anchor; the reason is dated and in the filings: first-half 2026 owner earnings were roughly $90 million on 13% higher revenue (second-quarter 2026 report), more than double the full-year 2025 figure. Beyond that we credit revenue growth of 6% a year for nine years (the 2020-2025 record is about 14% a year through the 2024 destock, driven by winning new car models with each EyeQ generation), but hold profit margins flat. Growth from robotics (Mentee Robotics, acquired February 2026 for about $612 million cash plus 26.3 million shares), new markets, share gains and cost leverage is left out because there is no signed volume or record behind it. After year ten we fade earnings to zero over ten years, the point at which nothing named continues. Base case: the business is worth about $0.5 billion plus roughly $1.0 billion of surplus cash (cash of $1,311 million at June 2026, less about $300 million kept for operations), with no debt, or about $1.80 per share on 841 million shares (including the shares issued for Mentee). Bear case: a repeat of 2024-style customer inventory reductions or lost volume with the 30% customer, owner earnings around -$70 million for two years, then nothing persists; the business is worth about -$0.15 billion against $1.0 billion of surplus cash, so about $1.00 per share. Bull case: the first-half 2026 pace of about $170 million a year is sustained and grows 15% for four years and 8% for six, then fades over ten years; the business is worth about $2.8 billion plus the cash, about $4.60 per share. What would make this wrong: the largest upside risk to our figures is cost discipline. Mobileye spent $1.15 billion on research in 2025 and share-based pay is the main reason owner earnings are thin; if research spending is cut while revenue keeps growing, earnings could rise far faster than we allow. On the downside, a large customer, a repeat inventory correction, tariff or Israel-related disruption, or further cash spent on humanoid robotics could remove the cash cushion. The full-year 2026 filing will show whether the first-half improvement holds.