MAIA Biotechnology, Inc. (MAIA) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

MAIA Biotechnology is a clinical-stage cancer drug developer with no products for sale and no revenue. Its one program is ateganosine (THIO), a telomere-targeting drug being tested in sequence with checkpoint-inhibitor immunotherapy in third-line non-small cell lung cancer. The technology is licensed from the University of Texas Southwestern (agreements dated December 2020). A Phase 3 trial, THIO-104 (randomized against chemotherapy, up to 300 patients), dosed its first patient in December 2025. HOW WE MEASURE IT. We measure what the business actually earns for its owners: operating cash flow, minus working-capital swings, minus stock compensation (a real cost paid in shares), minus maintenance capital spending (none reported). That figure has been negative every year: about $(8.6)M in 2021, $(15.0)M in 2022, $(19.1)M in 2023, $(16.3)M in 2024 and $(22.9)M in 2025. The 2025 loss works out to roughly $(0.71) per share. Warrant revaluation charges (a $6.7M non-cash loss in 2024, a $1.2M gain in 2025) explain the gap between reported net loss and cash burn and were reconciled. The company has no bank debt or convertible notes, so no debt is subtracted; its only non-operating liability is a $1.5M warrant liability that settles in shares, not cash. WHAT THE COMPANY HAS. After an underwritten offering in March 2026 (20 million shares at $1.50, roughly $31 to 33 million gross), cash was about $27.6 million at June 30, 2026, against $7.6 million of total liabilities, mostly trade payables and accrued expenses. Shares outstanding are roughly 61 million. Cash burn was $12.1 million in the first half of 2026 and rose in the second quarter as Phase 3 activity ramped up. At the current pace that cash lasts about a year, after which the company will again need to raise money and dilute holders. The going-concern doubt of prior years was lifted in the 2025 annual report after the March raise; the equity base ($20.7M at June 30) is well below the $50 million standard the exchange would normally apply, so the NYSE American listing rests on alternative compliance tests, and no compliance notice has been disclosed. CASES. We credit value only where something is secured or proven. Here, nothing is: no partner, no license income, no approved product, no positive randomized data. Ateganosine's earlier Phase 2 results are single-arm early data, and third-line lung cancer trials fail far more often than they succeed. That success is not counted in any case. Bear ($0.00 per share): the business is worth nothing, it owes no debt, and the cash is consumed by THIO-104 and overhead over the next 12 to 15 months with no partner or positive readout. Any further raise dilutes holders heavily. Shareholders are not liable beyond their stake, so the case stops at zero. Base ($0.00 per share): the median path is that the trial is funded through the cash on hand, burning about $23M a year, leaving the company with roughly nothing of value at the end of the funded period and no earnings to value. We do not treat the cash as free money for shareholders, because it is already committed to a trial that management is running and that has no evidenced payoff. Bull ($0.30 per share): the drug's lead trial is stopped or the company is wound down before the cash is spent (for example after an interim look), leaving roughly $22 million of net cash after payables and wind-down costs, or about $0.30 to $0.35 per share. This is the only value we can point to (cash in the bank today), not a successful drug. A successful Phase 3 would be worth far more, but it depends on a trial result that does not yet exist, so it is left out. WHAT WOULD MAKE THIS ESTIMATE WRONG. Positive randomized survival data against chemotherapy, or a partner paying committed upfront cash, would change the picture dramatically and quickly; a company at this stage can be worth many multiples of its cash on a single readout. Our analysis deliberately does not assume that, since it cannot be named and evidenced today. We also checked whether any partnership or licensing revenue exists in the filings and found none beyond the university license under which MAIA pays.