LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP (LVS) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Las Vegas Sands no longer owns anything in Las Vegas. It sold its Las Vegas properties in February 2022, and today it is two businesses: about 75% of Sands China, which runs The Venetian Macao, The Londoner Macao, The Parisian Macao, the Four Seasons Macao and Sands Macao under one of only six Macao gaming concessions, and 100% of Marina Bay Sands in Singapore, one of only two casino resorts the Singapore government allows. In 2025 the Macao resorts earned about $2.3 billion before interest, taxes and depreciation, and Marina Bay Sands earned about $2.9 billion. How we measured earnings. We start from operating cash flow, remove swings in working capital, then subtract stock pay, the capital spending needed to keep the resorts competitive, and the yearly cost of the land leases. Next we remove the roughly 25% of Sands China owned by outside shareholders. Two big land payments went through operating cash flow: $969 million in 2019 for the Marina Bay Sands expansion site, and $848 million in April 2025 to buy extra gaming floor for Singapore. We treated both as investment in the expansion, not as running costs. We also added back a one-time $750 million tax bill in 2022 on the gain from selling Las Vegas. On that basis, owner earnings per share were $3.03 in 2019 (Macao and Singapore only), losses in 2020 to 2022 while COVID shut the resorts, then $1.92 in 2023, $1.80 in 2024 and $3.39 in 2025. Which years represent the business today. The 2023 to 2025 median is $1.92, but it understates today's business. 2023 was the first year after Macao reopened. In 2024, rooms were out of service while Marina Bay Sands rebuilt its three hotel towers into 1,844 rooms, including 775 suites, and The Londoner Macao was being converted, and capital spending hit $1.57 billion. Those renovations finished in the second quarter of 2025. In the year since, Marina Bay Sands earnings rose 42%, and cash earnings over the four quarters to June 2026 ran at about $3.40 a share. We set our starting level below that, at about $2.05 billion a year to shareholders (about $3.10 a share on 656 million diluted shares). Two reasons. First, the older Macao resorts are slipping: in 2025 The Venetian fell 13%, The Parisian 27% and Sands Macao 45%, and only the renovated Londoner grew. Second, operating income in the second quarter of 2026 fell about 21% from a year earlier on flat revenue, and the filings we have do not explain why. We also set upkeep spending at about $1.2 billion a year, above the $0.98 billion our formula gives for 2025, because depreciation is about $1.46 billion. Owner earnings grew 78% in 2025. Our base case assumes about 0% growth in year one, well below that, because most of the 2025 jump was the one-time step-up from the finished renovations. The Singapore expansion. Marina Bay Sands is building a roughly $8.0 billion expansion: a new hotel tower, an arena and 2,000 more square meters of gaming floor, bringing its approved total to 17,000. Construction began in May 2025, about $2.5 billion had been spent by the end of 2025, and opening is expected in January 2031. The contract with Singapore required completion by July 2029, so the schedule has already slipped past that date. Roughly $5.5 billion is still to be spent, mostly in 2026 to 2030. We subtract it from cash flow in those years, which is why the next five years show only about $1 billion a year left for shareholders. Base case (about $43 a share). Macao holds flat at today's level. Its earnings were $2.22 billion, $2.33 billion and $2.31 billion in 2023 to 2025, so flat is the record. The Macao concession expires on December 31, 2032, and we assume it is renewed on similar terms. In the 2022 re-tender, all six existing operators won new concessions. Singapore holds flat at 2025 levels. The expansion opens in 2031 and adds about $700 million a year of earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation from 2032, which is under a 9% return on its cost. Earnings are flat in dollars with no inflation growth, and the story runs 30 years to the mid-2050s. That is supported by 20 years of operating history in Macao and 16 in Singapore, and by how few licenses exist, but licenses must be renewed, so we stop there rather than assume forever. Bear case (about $18 a share). Macao earnings shrink 4% a year through 2032, as the 2025 property results and the weak second quarter of 2026 suggest they could. The concession is renewed in 2033 on terms that cut Macao profit by another quarter. The 2022 renewal did come with heavier investment and other obligations. Marina Bay Sands falls back to about $2.5 billion, close to its 2024 to 2025 average. Its cap on casino tax, which runs until at least March 2032, lapses and tax rises. The expansion costs $1 billion more, opens in 2032 and earns only about $450 million a year. Debt stood at $15.3 billion in June 2026 and will rise to pay for the expansion, and refinancing at higher rates adds about $150 million a year of interest. The story runs 25 years. Bull case (about $61 a share). Marina Bay Sands keeps raising prices by about 3% a year through 2030, as its earnings path of $1.86 billion, $2.05 billion and $2.92 billion from 2023 to 2025 shows it can. Macao grows 2% a year through 2032 as The Londoner keeps ramping up after its renovation, then holds flat. The expansion opens on time and earns about $1.1 billion a year. That is in line with the returns from the recent suite renovation, which added about $870 million of yearly earnings. The story runs 35 years. We do not subtract debt separately, because owner earnings are already measured after interest. Instead, the debt shows up as the extra interest and tighter margins in the bear case. What could make this wrong. Nearly all the value rests on two government licenses. Singapore has promised no more than two casino licenses only until January 1, 2031, and Marina Bay Sands' casino license runs in three-year terms, with the current one expiring in April 2028. If Singapore licensed a third casino, or Macao renewed the concession on much harsher terms, value would fall below our bear case. Visitors from mainland China drive Macao, so Chinese travel and policy decisions matter. On the other side, if Marina Bay Sands' higher earnings hold and the expansion earns like the recent renovations did, the shares are worth nearer the bull case. Margin-of-safety price. Because the business depends on licenses, carries heavy debt and is spending heavily on the expansion, the estimate applies a wide margin of safety of about 40% below the base case. That puts the margin-of-safety price at about $25, above the bear-case value.