Lightstone Value Plus REIT IV, Inc. (LTSV) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Lightstone Value Plus REIT IV is an unlisted real estate company with two assets: a 75% stake in the 216-room Williamsburg Moxy Hotel in Brooklyn (opened March 2023, Marriott-branded, financed with a $95 million floating-rate mortgage), and a one-third interest in the last unsold units of a Manhattan condominium project (40 East End Avenue). Its shares do not trade on an exchange, so the values below describe what the holding appears to be worth, not a market quote. The company's own independent-appraisal-based estimate was $9.38 per share at year-end 2025, driven by a hotel appraisal of about $179 million (our reading of the 75% share shown as $134.6 million). We reach a far lower figure because we value what the hotel actually earns. What the business earns: after paying about $9.0 million of interest, operating cash flow was negative in every year since the hotel opened (about -$4.8M in 2023, -$7.7M in 2024, -$0.85M in 2025). After maintenance capital spending of roughly $1.4-1.6 million a year, owner earnings were about -$0.29 per share in 2025 (2024 and 2023 were worse and distorted by the refinancing and the opening). Before interest, the hotel generated about $8.2 million of cash in 2025 and roughly $6.7 million after maintenance capital, but the $95 million loan at about 8.9% consumes all of it and more. Revenue has stopped growing (about $30.5 million in 2025, +2.8%; first half of 2026 slightly down, $13.5M vs $13.7M), and we credit no growth. Cash used in operations improved in the first half of 2026 (-$1.0M vs -$2.2M) but one half-year is not enough to move our estimate. How we value it: because the loan is collateralized by the hotel and generally non-recourse, we value the hotel as its own earning power capitalised at 6%, less the loan at face, and take the company's 75% share; the shares can be worth little but not less than zero from the hotel. We add the remaining Manhattan condo unit, about $3.0 million of carrying value: one of the last two units sold in February 2026 and returned $2.7 million, which is the evidence that the remaining unit can also be sold. Base case (about $0.83 per share): the hotel keeps earning about $6.0 million a year before interest after maintenance capital (below 2025's $6.7M because part of 2025 included one-time insurance advances), no growth, and the loan is refinanced at face. That is about $100 million of hotel value versus $95 million of debt, roughly $3.75 million to shareholders plus $3.0 million for the condo unit. Bear case (about $0.18): the loan comes due April 2027 (extendable to April 2028 only if conditions are met). The hotel already missed its required debt-service coverage in September 2025 and the lender was only holding back from sweeping cash pending an insurance claim. If extension or refinancing fails, the lender takes the hotel and the hotel equity is worth nothing; only about half of the condo unit's value is credited. Bull case (about $2.00): the hotel holds its full 2025 pre-interest cash generation of about $6.7 million after maintenance capital (helped by the pending business-interruption insurance recovery) with no further growth: about $113 million of value, $18 million above the debt, and the condo unit sold at carrying value. What is not credited: room-rate or occupancy growth, margin expansion, interest-rate declines, and any value from the sponsor's subordinated advances. What would prove this wrong on the downside: a refinancing that fails; on the upside: a refinancing at a materially lower rate, which would turn owner earnings positive. The company has no employees and pays fees to its sponsor-affiliated advisor; the sponsor's chairman also controls the co-investors in the condo project. Debt terms, the appraisal of the hotel, and the split between the company's share and its partner's 25% share could not be fully reconciled from the filings, so we treated hotel value net of the full $95M loan and took 75%.