$0.59
$5.56
bear $0.59
base $3.79
bull $5.56
margin of safety $1.50
market price* $8.06
Liberty Latin America sells broadband, mobile, television and business telecom services in more than 20 countries across Latin America and the Caribbean, including Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Panama and Costa Rica, under the C&W, Liberty Puerto Rico and Liberty Costa Rica brands, and it sells wholesale and enterprise capacity on its subsea and terrestrial fiber networks to carriers and large cloud customers. Revenue was $4,442 million in 2025, essentially unchanged from $4,447 million in 2024 and down from $4,511 million in 2023. Puerto Rico, the largest market, has been shrinking: $1,355 million in 2023, $1,188 million in 2024 and $1,129 million in 2025. What the business earns for its owners. We start from operating cash flow, which is already after interest, and remove working-capital swings, stock compensation and the capital spending needed to keep the networks running. One judgement matters here. The cash-flow statement understates real capital spending because some equipment is bought on vendor financing and repaid later as debt. We therefore use total property and equipment additions ($640 million in 2025, $725 million in 2024, $731 million in 2023). On that basis owner earnings were about $148 million in 2025, a loss of about $35 million in 2024, $156 million in 2023 and $132 million in 2022, or roughly $0.74, minus $0.18, $0.74 and $0.59 per share. The 2025 rebound came mainly from lower capital spending ($85 million less than 2024) and higher operating cash flow. We measure the level from 2022 onward because the Chilean joint venture was disposed of in 2022 and earlier years describe a larger, different company. The median of those four years is about $0.67 per share. Two further points. First, some subsidiaries (including those in Panama, Jamaica and The Bahamas) are owned partly by outside partners, and cash paid to those partners was $73 million in 2025, $55 million in 2024 and $75 million in 2023, about $68 million a year. That cash never reaches Liberty Latin America shareholders, so we deduct it, which lowers the starting level to about $0.33 per share. Second, the company has $8.3 billion of debt at a weighted average rate near 7%, and paid $600 million of cash interest in 2025. Owner earnings are small next to that debt, so a modest operating change moves the per-share value a great deal. Growth. Owner earnings rose from a loss in 2024 to $148 million in 2025; year one of our base case assumes no growth from the $0.33 starting level, not a continuation of that rebound. We credit no growth in any case. Revenue has been flat to slightly down for three years, Puerto Rico is contracting, and we do not credit the September 2024 acquisition of EchoStar's spectrum and prepaid mobile subscribers in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, because Puerto Rico revenue still fell in 2025. Lower spending on equipment is real in the 2025 figures but is not assumed to continue. Base case, $3.79 per share. Owner earnings stay flat at about $0.33 per share for 20 years and are worth nothing after that. The evidence for persistence is a large installed fixed and mobile network with revenue that has held near $4.4 to $4.5 billion for three years. We do not credit anything beyond year 20, because nothing we can name and evidence carries earnings past the useful life of today's networks. Bear case, $0.59 per share. Puerto Rico keeps shrinking as it did in 2024 and 2025, capital spending stays needed, and consolidated debt maturities of $1,176 million in 2027, $1,111 million in 2028 and $1,417 million in 2029 must be refinanced, including $1,163 million at Liberty Puerto Rico in 2027. Owner earnings to shareholders fade from $0.33 to zero over five years and stay at zero. We did not model a default, and the company states it has sufficient resources to repay or refinance the debt due within 12 months. Bull case, $5.56 per share. The business holds the 2025 capital-spending and cash-flow level it has already achieved: about $148 million of owner earnings, or $0.40 per share after payments to outside partners. That level is held flat for 30 years. No revenue recovery is assumed. What could make this wrong. The largest risk is refinancing: $406 million of debt falls due in 2026, $1,176 million in 2027 and $1,111 million in 2028, and higher rates would cut the shareholder's slice quickly. The largest upside we did not credit is a real stabilisation of Puerto Rico revenue or continued lower spending on equipment. The company also carries $306 million of vendor financing obligations, which are included in the debt total. The margin-of-safety price is $1.50 a share: that is well under the base value and about two and a half times our bear value, reflecting heavy debt, exposure to many local currencies and a thin owner-earnings stream.