Liberty Global Ltd. (LBTYA) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Liberty Global owns and runs cable and broadband businesses in Europe: Telenet in Belgium, Virgin Media Ireland, and a small Slovak operation that it agreed in December 2025 to sell. It also owns 50% of two large joint ventures that it does not consolidate, VMO2 in the United Kingdom and VodafoneZiggo in the Netherlands, plus Formula E and a portfolio of investments. After the 2024 spin-off of Sunrise (Switzerland), the business is much smaller than the one described in older filings, so we measure only the continuing business, using 2022 through 2025. What the business earns for its owners. We start from operating cash flow, take out the swings in working capital, take out stock compensation as a real cost, and deduct the capital spending needed to stay in business. We also count equipment bought on vendor financing, because it is a real recurring cost that the reported capital-spending line leaves out. On that basis owner earnings per share were about $1.31 in 2022, $0.16 in 2023, $0.24 in 2024 and a loss of $0.75 in 2025. The 2022 figure was lifted by larger dividends from the two joint ventures and lower interest costs, so we anchor on the 2023 to 2025 median of about $0.16 per share. The main reasons for the slide: capital spending rose from about 21 percent of revenue in 2024 to about 28 percent in 2025 (network new-build and upgrades in Belgium and Ireland, and customer equipment), and the dividends paid to Liberty Global's operating cash flow by VMO2 fell from $455 million in 2022 to $246 million in 2025. The company says it expects 2026 property and equipment additions to rise again, and the first half of 2026 supports that: operating cash flow of $338 million against cash capital spending of $746 million and stock compensation of $81 million. Owner earnings are therefore running below the anchor. What we did and did not count. Growth in owner earnings is not credited in any case: revenue growth in 2025 came with much heavier spending, and returns on the new networks are not yet evidenced. Large 2025 accounting losses (the foreign currency loss of $3.1 billion and the $2.9 billion share of VMO2 impairment charges) are non-cash and do not change our figures. We do not add the balance sheet cash or investments, and we do not deduct debt from the value; leverage is instead reflected in the bear case. Total debt was about $8.6 billion at the end of 2025, of which $764 million was due within a year. Dividends from the joint ventures that the company classifies as investing (about $9 million in 2025, but $206 million in 2024 and $815 million in 2023) are not in owner earnings. Bear case, about -$2.7 per share. Capital spending stays near 2025 levels, joint venture dividends keep shrinking, and the VodafoneZiggo investment could be impaired as the filing warns. Owner earnings stay near a loss of $1 per share through 2028 and then only reach break-even. The company appears to owe more than the business is worth in this case, by roughly $2.7 per share in today's value. Base case, about $0.70 per share. Owner earnings are about -$0.90 in 2026 and -$0.60 in 2027 given the higher planned spending, about -$0.20 in 2028, and then return to the 2023 to 2025 median of $0.16 per share with no growth thereafter. That return rests on capital spending having run at 21 to 25 percent of revenue in 2022 to 2024, but it is not guaranteed. Bull case, about $9.90 per share. The network build cycle ends and capital intensity returns to its 2022 to 2024 range. Owner earnings recover to about $0.75 per share from 2029, roughly the average of 2022 and 2023, with no growth after that. What would make this wrong: a sharp cut in capital spending without loss of customers would push results toward the bull case, while continued dividend cuts from VMO2 or an impairment at VodafoneZiggo would push toward the bear case. Because this method ignores the value of the joint venture stakes and other investments except through the dividends they pay, the estimate may understate what those assets could fetch if sold. Share counts have also fallen (from 497 million diluted shares in 2022 to 342 million in 2025 on buybacks), so per-share results before and after are not directly comparable.