Janux Therapeutics, Inc. (JANX) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Janux Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing T-cell engager therapies for cancer, most advanced of which (JANX007, targeting PSMA for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, and JANX008) are still in Phase 1b expansion and have not been approved or sold commercially. The company has no approved products and essentially no product revenue; the only revenue it has recorded comes from two research collaborations - with Merck (signed 2020, active research funding ended in August 2024) and with Bristol Myers Squibb (signed January 2026, $15 million upfront payment, with up to $785 million in further milestones tied to development, regulatory and sales events that have not occurred yet). Because none of the pipeline programs have reached approval, we have not put any value in this analysis on future product sales, additional collaboration milestones, or royalties - those depend on clinical trial and regulatory outcomes that have not happened and cannot be soundly estimated today. That is a deliberately conservative choice: if JANX007 or JANX008 succeed in later-stage trials, or if Bristol Myers Squibb's or Merck's milestones are triggered, the shares would be worth meaningfully more than the figures below. This analysis instead values only what can be evidenced today: the company's cash position and the ongoing cost of running its research programs. As of the most recent balance sheet, Janux held about $971 million in cash and short-term investments and carries no debt - its liabilities are almost entirely a facilities lease and deferred revenue, not borrowings. Against that, the company has consistently spent more cash on research and administration than it has brought in, historically between roughly $1.45 and $1.71 of cash use per share each year from 2021 to 2024, before jumping to about $2.10 per share in 2025 as the company expanded mid-stage patient cohorts for its two lead programs. The first half of 2026 shows that pace of expense growth cooling relative to the prior year, which is treated here as an early, not yet fully proven, sign of moderation. All three cases assume Janux keeps funding its current research programs and that continued spending is paid for out of its own cash pile - not new products, not un-triggered milestones. The base case assumes yearly cash use per share stays close to recent levels for the next several years as the mid-stage studies run their course, then gradually eases over the back half of the ten-year period as those studies read out and spending is prioritized, consistent with management's own statement that its current cash is not sufficient to fund any program all the way through approval, implying an eventual need for spending discipline or new financing. The bear case assumes spending stays elevated near the 2025 pace for longer, reflecting a large field of well-funded competitors also developing T-cell engager and related cancer therapies, with only a slow, late easing. The bull case assumes the moderation seen in early 2026 continues and strengthens, with spending discipline improving faster and further, though still without crediting any product revenue. Putting the cash position together with ten years of discounted cash use under each case, the shares are worth on the order of $1.62 in the bear case, $4.43 in the base case, and $8.82 in the bull case. All three figures sit well below the company's current net cash per share, because they treat continued research spending as a real, ongoing cost against that cash pile with no offsetting product revenue credited - the entire value of a successful drug is treated as optionality, not as something to pay for today. There is no indication of financial distress: cash covers many years of spending at the current rate, and nothing in the filings suggests a going-concern issue. The main way this view would prove too conservative is exactly the scenario we did not price in - positive later-stage trial results, an approval, or a large milestone payment from Merck or Bristol Myers Squibb. The main way it could prove too generous is if research spending keeps climbing at the 2025 pace for years without any offsetting deal or data success, or if the T-cell engager field becomes more competitive than the current pipeline can keep pace with.