Ideal Power Inc. (IPWR) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

This company is a development-stage power semiconductor business built around its B-TRAN transistor, a bidirectional switch that it says lost less than half the electrical energy of conventional silicon IGBT switches in test results. It relies on outside fabrication partners and began shipping prototype devices to large companies in mid-2023, followed by SymCool Power Modules for customer orders in early 2024. Target uses named in its filing include AI data centers, solid-state circuit breakers, static transfer switches and electric vehicle contactors. What the numbers show: revenue was $203,269 in 2022, $198,871 in 2023, $86,032 in 2024 and $37,728 in 2025, and only $5,800 in the first half of 2026. Meanwhile operating cash flow was a burn of $9.1 million in 2025 and $4.5 million in the first half of 2026. After subtracting stock-based compensation (a real cost, $0.7 million in 2025) and capital spending, owner earnings per share were negative in every one of the ten years we calculated, from about $(11.75) in 2016 to about $(1.13) in 2025. We measure owner earnings as operating cash flow, less working-capital swings, less stock compensation, less maintenance capital spending, and we treated all capital spending as maintenance because the company has no established revenue base to scale it against. There is no positive earnings stream to anchor a valuation. Funding: cash was $6.1 million at the end of 2025. In February 2026 the company sold shares and pre-funded warrants at $2.75 per share, with proceeds of about $12.6 million as stated in the filing, and the filing says this removed the substantial doubt about its ability to continue operating for twelve months. Earlier funding has come from selling stock, so continued share issuance has repeatedly diluted holders; the weighted share count rose from about 6.2 million in 2023 to 9.1 million in 2025 and 16.9 million in the second quarter of 2026. Under our approach cash on the balance sheet is not added on top of a case value, and no debt is deducted. Bear, base and bull cases: we value each case at $0 per share. The only sales so far are small prototype and module shipments, and we found no signed supply contract, backlog or committed volume in the filing that would turn the technology into earnings. Market-size figures and target applications are hopes, not evidence, so we leave them out of all three cases. The bear case is that cash burn continues, more shares are issued, and no earnings ever appear. The base and bull cases give the same result because nothing named and documented supports a positive value today. The company does not appear to owe more than it is worth in a way that makes the value negative; the cases are simply zero because no earnings can be supported. What would make this wrong: a signed volume contract with a large customer, or products moving from prototype to recurring revenue with costs below revenue. If that happens the valuation should be redone; until then the shares are an option on the technology, not a claim on demonstrated earnings.