$26.00
$80.00
bear $26.00
base $57.00
bull $80.00
margin of safety $28.00
market price* $109.99
International Seaways owns and operates a fleet of ocean-going tankers: 70 vessels at the end of 2025 (crude tankers and product carriers), plus four dual-fuel-ready LR1 product tankers on order for delivery between the first and third quarters of 2026. The business earns money by moving oil and fuel around the world at charter rates that swing widely. In 2025, 82% of its revenue (down from 86% in 2024 and 91% in 2023) came from the spot market, mostly through six commercial pools, so earnings follow the tanker cycle closely. Debt was $567.1 million at the end of 2025, with net debt at 16.5% of total capitalization. How we measure earnings. We start from cash generated by operations (which already includes the cash spent on ship drydockings), remove one-off swings in receivables and other working capital, and subtract stock compensation and the cost of keeping the fleet going. For a ship owner we count that cost as vessel purchases and improvements less the cash received from selling old ships, because selling and replacing ships is how a fleet stays the same size. Years in which ship sales exceeded purchases are counted as zero rather than as a gain. Revenue here moves with charter rates, not fleet size, so we did not split purchases into "growth" and "upkeep" by revenue; we treated them all as upkeep. Owner earnings per share, 2017 to 2025: -$4.46, $0.99, $1.73, $5.97, -$1.69, $8.64, $9.80, $5.39, $5.23. The company merged with Diamond S Shipping in July 2021, which raised the share count from about 28 million to about 50 million and changed the fleet, so we treat 2021 to 2025 as the business as it now exists. That window includes the trough year of the merger, the boom of 2022 and 2023, and the more moderate 2024 and 2025. Its median is about $5.39; the nine-year median is $5.23, matching 2025 itself. We use about $5.20 per share a year as the normal level. Owner earnings fell about 3% in 2025 ($5.39 to $5.23), and our base case starts at that level with no growth assumed. We do not credit market recovery, share gains or newbuild upside. Recent results. In the first half of 2026, net income was $581.1 million against $111.2 million a year earlier, on revenue of $792.8 million against $379.0 million, and operating cash flow was $408.7 million against $155.7 million. That is a strong stretch, but it comes from charter rates, which we cannot name as a lasting feature of the business, so it informs the bull case and does not raise our normal level. Bear case, $26 per share. The company repeats the 2017 to 2021 period (average owner earnings about $0.51 a year) for five years, then returns to the nine-year average of about $3.50 for five more years, after which earnings fade evenly to zero over the following 20 years. This reflects the spot-market exposure and the fact that three of the last nine years (2017, 2018 and 2021) were negative or below $1. Base case, $57 per share. Owner earnings of about $5.20 a year for ten years, then an even fade to zero over the next 20 years. We do not assume the fleet renews itself indefinitely, because nothing in the filings tells us what will be bought or earned that far out. Bull case, $80 per share. The 2022 to 2025 average of about $7.27 a year persists for ten years, followed by the same 20-year fade. The first half of 2026 is running well above this. What we left out. We give no credit for the four LR1 newbuilds as extra earnings, for lower spot exposure, or for future rate strength. Sale proceeds from ships are a real but lumpy source of cash (about $649 million over 2021 to 2025, including $246 million in 2025). If they were ignored and all purchases counted as upkeep, the 2021 to 2025 median would be about $3.94 and the base case would be roughly $43. Our reconciliation of net income plus depreciation and other non-cash items to operating cash flow tied to within about 0.2% in each of 2023, 2024 and 2025. What could make this wrong: a long period of weak rates (like 2017 to 2021), rising ship prices making fleet renewal more expensive, or a fall in oil transport demand. The margin-of-safety price is about $28, roughly half our base value, given the cyclical, rate-driven earnings.