$10.80
$38.50
bear $10.80
base $28.90
bull $38.50
margin of safety $17.00
market price* $26.70
Business. Ingram Micro is one of the world's largest wholesale distributors of technology: it buys laptops, phones, servers, networking gear, software and cloud subscriptions from vendors such as Apple (about 21% of fiscal 2025 sales) and resells them, with logistics, financing and support services, to resellers and service providers in about 60 countries. Sales were about $52.6 billion in fiscal 2025 (roughly 34% United States, with China and India each above 10%), and profit margins are thin, so small changes in gross profit, working capital and interest costs matter a lot. It has been public since October 2024 and is controlled by Platinum Equity. How we measured earnings. We start from operating cash flow, strip out the large swings in receivables, inventory and payables (which moved cash by hundreds of millions of dollars in each of the last four years), and deduct stock compensation and the portion of capital spending needed just to stay in business. That gives owner earnings of about $1.42 per share in fiscal 2023 and 2024 and $2.03 in fiscal 2025. Fiscal 2022 was distorted by the sale of the Commerce and Lifecycle Services unit (tax on a $2.3 billion gain) and is set aside. Because the company also owes about $3.8 billion, we add back the cash interest it pays (about $300 million to $380 million a year) to see what the business earns before its lenders, value that, then subtract the debt. Business cash flow per share was $3.12, $2.92 and $3.31 in fiscal 2023 to 2025. Amortization of acquired customer relationships (about $85 million a year) is a non-cash charge; we do not deduct it, but we treat it as a reason earning power is not assumed to last forever (see fade below). Base case, about $28.90 per share. The starting level is $3.10 of business cash flow per share, close to the middle of the last three years (after allowing for stock compensation that was not charged before the 2024 offering). Trailing owner earnings grew about 13% in fiscal 2025 on this basis; we assume 0% growth in year one and beyond, because growth in distribution comes from a growing IT market and share gains, and neither is contracted or a repeatable step we can point to. Recent quarters are running above that level (net income about $431 million over the last four reported quarters against $328 million for fiscal 2025), but we could not confirm cash flow behind them, so we credit only a small step. The earnings stream is held flat for ten years, then declines 3% a year, on the basis that a 45-year-old scale distributor with entrenched vendor relationships keeps most of its earning power for a long time but not forever. This gives a business value of about $41.5 per share. From that we subtract net debt of about $12.6 per share: $3.8 billion of borrowings at June 27, 2026 less $0.8 billion of cash (mid-year is the seasonal peak for borrowing; it was $3.2 billion of debt and $1.9 billion of cash at year-end), reduced by about $58 million because $2.0 billion of 4.75% senior secured notes due May 2029 cost less than our 6% rate. Bear case, about $10.80 per share. Two named risks. First, vendor concentration: Apple was about 21% of sales in 2025 and another vendor about 9%, and a change in allocation, terms or direct selling could cut earnings; we assume business cash flow per share falls about 27% to $2.27 over three years and, after ten years, declines 6% a year. Second, about $937 million of receivables are sold to banks under factoring programs that are uncommitted, so we assume they are withdrawn and the money must be borrowed, adding about $4.0 per share of debt. Business value about $27.4 per share less debt of about $16.6 per share. The business still covers its interest bill in this case (about $530 million of business cash flow against roughly $330 million of interest), and we assume the 2029 notes are refinanced at higher rates. Bull case, about $38.50 per share. Business cash flow of $3.60 per share, which is what the last four quarters of stronger earnings would imply if they hold, still with no growth credited and a 2% annual decline after year ten. Business value about $51.1 per share less debt of $12.6 per share. What we left out. We did not credit growth from cloud and advanced solutions (over half of gross profit today), because a higher-margin mix shift is a hoped-for outcome rather than something contracted. We also did not credit revenue growth from a market recovery. Two disclosed items are small relative to value and not modelled separately: a possible Brazilian tax exposure of about $141 million (with about $10 million accrued) and a French competition fine on Apple volume allocation. The July 2025 ransomware incident cost about $6 million in response costs in 2025. What would make this wrong. Cash flow was reduced by working-capital timing that we removed; if the business has to keep funding working capital at the pace of the last three years (about $250 million a year consumed on average), the true cash available to owners is lower than we show. Several debt facilities are floating rate, and a large part of the value depends on a thin margin holding. From the filings we could not reconcile the second-quarter 2026 balance sheet in detail (only summary figures were available), so net debt uses those summary figures.