International Money Express, Inc. (IMXI) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

International Money Express (Intermex) moves money for immigrants in the United States and Canada to families in Latin America and the Caribbean, mainly Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and the Dominican Republic. It earns a fee on each transfer plus a small foreign-exchange spread, through a network of independent sending agents, its own company-operated stores, and a digital channel. The pending sale. In August 2025 Intermex agreed to be acquired by The Western Union Company for $16.00 in cash per share. Shareholders approved the deal in December 2025. As of June 2026, regulators in 51 U.S. states and territories and all international regulators had approved or not objected. New York approved in August 2026, but California's regulator suspended a previously granted extension on August 13, 2026 to review the deal further. If the agreement is terminated because of antitrust-related restraints or missing antitrust approvals, Western Union owes Intermex a $27.3 million fee. Our cases below value the business on its own, from what it actually earns, because an acquirer's price reflects that acquirer's plans and completion is outside the company's control. If the sale closes, shareholders receive $16.00 in cash, which is far above our stand-alone estimates. How we measure earnings. We start from cash generated by operations, remove the swings in money owed by agents and money in transit (large and lumpy for a money remitter), and then deduct stock compensation, credit losses on agent balances, lease payments and the ongoing cost of equipment as real costs. Owner earnings per share were $0.44 in 2018, $0.79 in 2019, $1.15 in 2020, $1.31 in 2021, $1.60 in 2022, $1.74 in 2023, $1.41 in 2024 and $1.33 in 2025. The 2025 figure would be about $1.57 if the $10.5 million of one-time deal costs were added back after tax. The 2022 to 2025 median was $1.50. What changed. That history no longer describes the business. Revenue fell 7.7% in 2025, to $607.8 million from $658.6 million, as the number of transfers dropped 8.5% (the Mexico corridor was weakest), although the average amount sent per transfer rose. In the first half of 2026 revenue fell to $253.1 million from $305.4 million, the amount sent fell about 12% to $10.4 billion, and net income fell to $4.7 million from $18.8 million. The company points to a contraction in retail remittances to Latin America and to taxes on certain remittances that began in 2026. Two consecutive periods of decline, with the new taxes now in force, are enough for us to reset the starting level rather than rely on the older median. Rebuilding the same measure for the first half of 2026 gives roughly $5.7 million, or about $0.38 per share when annualized. This is our own approximation from the quarterly report, not a stored full-year figure, and it adds back $1.9 million of one-time transaction costs (about $1.3 million after tax). We start at $0.40 per share, allowing a little for the drop in revolving credit borrowings from $194.8 million at the end of 2025 to $113.8 million at June 30, 2026. Owner earnings fell 13% in total in 2025 (about 6% per share, helped by share buybacks). Our first-year figure of $0.40 is a much steeper fall, and that is what the 2026 results show. Bear case, $1.50 per share. Volumes keep shrinking, with owner earnings starting at $0.35 and falling 15% a year for ten years, then nothing. This rests on the 12% drop in the amount sent in the first half of 2026, the decline in transfers in 2025 before it, and the weakness in the Mexico corridor. Base case, $2.90 per share. Owner earnings start at $0.40 and decline 5% a year for ten years, reflecting a market that has now contracted for two straight periods, then fade to zero over the following ten years. We credit no growth: the digital channel and the European subsidiaries are growing and partly offset the retail decline, but they have not been large enough to stop it. Bull case, $5.70 per share. The decline stops at about $0.50 per share, which is today's run rate plus savings from lower debt and the digital offset, and this level holds for 20 years, then nothing. It assumes no recovery in remittance volume and no windfall from the sale. What the shares appear to be worth. Our stand-alone estimates are $1.50, $2.90 and $5.70 per share, and the margin-of-safety price is about $1.90. The gap to the $16.00 offer means the acquirer is paying for far more than the business earns today; that extra value is not in our numbers. What could make these estimates wrong. The sale closing at $16.00 would make the shares worth far more than our estimates. A rebound in transfer counts, or cost savings not yet visible, would also lift them. On the downside are further volume losses, higher credit losses on agent balances, and the sale failing while the business is still weak. The filing names the new remittance taxes, stronger immigration enforcement and a lasting rise in the Mexican peso or Guatemalan quetzal as risks to volumes.