Immunome Inc. (IMNM) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Immunome is a clinical-stage cancer drug developer. Its lead product candidate, varegacestat, treats desmoid tumors; the Phase 3 RINGSIDE trial has completed and the company said it expected to submit a new drug application in the second quarter of 2026. Behind it are IM-1021 (a ROR1-targeted antibody-drug conjugate in a Phase 1 trial) and IM-3050 (a radioligand therapy not yet in the clinic). It has no approved products. Revenue was $14.0M in 2023 and $6.9M in 2025 and none in the first half of 2026, and it came from collaboration and contract-research work rather than sales. The company has never produced positive owner earnings. Cash used by operations, less stock compensation and equipment spending, was about $(2.59) per share in 2025, $(2.28) in 2024 and negative in every year back to 2020. Cash used in operations was $121M in the first half of 2026. Cash and equivalents were $654M at the end of 2025 and $218M at June 30, 2026. That drop is more than the operating burn, so some cash was probably moved into investments or spent otherwise; we could not reconcile this from the data we reviewed. The company has funded itself by selling shares (share count rose from about 12M in 2022 to about 113M in 2026), so existing holders have been heavily diluted. The filing states that cash is sufficient for at least twelve months, with no going-concern warning, though it also says more financing will be needed. Our approach values only what is already evidenced. Approval of varegacestat, launch sales, and the IM-1021 and IM-3050 programs are hoped-for events, not facts, so none of them are credited with earnings in any case. Positive Phase 3 data is a fact but it is not an approved drug. This leaves only the cash the company holds as evidenced value. Bear case (about $0.80 per share): the FDA rejects or delays the application and the company must wind down or sharply cut spending. About six months of current burn is consumed first, leaving roughly $0.80 per share of the $218M. Base case ($1.20): the company keeps spending on trials and burns part of its cash before any decision, with no earnings credited. Bull case ($1.90): the cash balance is preserved essentially intact, and nothing is credited for approval. These cash-based values are a floor, not a forecast of what the shares could be worth if varegacestat is approved and sold. If approval and launch happen, the value would be far higher, but it cannot be quantified from evidence in the filings. The analysis would be wrong if the balance sheet holds meaningful investments beyond the cash reported, or if a launch turns quickly cash-positive. The margin-of-safety price is a low $0.50, and a higher figure would depend on approval and a commercial launch.