$1.03
$4.39
bear $1.03
base $2.98
bull $4.39
margin of safety $1.20
market price* $4.04
What the business is. ImageneBio was formed in July 2025 when Ikena Oncology merged with Inmagene Biopharmaceuticals and took the ImageneBio name. For accounting purposes Inmagene is treated as the acquirer, so the financial history shown is Inmagene's. Ikena did a 1-for-12 reverse stock split just before the merger, and investors put in about $75.0 million at roughly $29.90 per share alongside the deal. Before closing, Inmagene sold everything except IMG-007 to a new private company, Miragene. That leaves one clinical program: IMG-007 (olevaprubart), an antibody against OX40 licensed from Hutchmed, being developed for atopic dermatitis and alopecia areata. A Phase 2b dose-finding trial in atopic dermatitis (the ADAPTIVE trial) began in 2025. The company has submitted a protocol amendment to the FDA and Health Canada to test better dose exposures, expects to add sites outside North America, and expects topline data in 2027. The company has no product sales. Its only revenue was one-off license payments: $3.5 million in 2024 and $0.8 million in 2025. What it earns. The business uses cash. Measured as owner earnings (operating cash flow excluding working-capital swings, with stock compensation counted as a cost), it lost about $19.8 million in 2024 and $44.0 million in 2025. The 2025 figure worked out to about -$9.04 per weighted share. The 2024 figure excludes a one-time $14.0 million charge that was paid in shares to Hutchmed for the license. We treated that as the cost of acquiring the asset, not an ongoing expense. Net loss was $45.3 million in 2025 and $20.8 million in the first half of 2026. First-half 2026 losses were steady at about $10 million per quarter. The drug and its active ingredient are made in China by a single manufacturer with no qualified backup, and the company says current supply is not enough for the Phase 2b study, so more manufacturing runs are needed. The license also requires milestone payments to Hutchmed as IMG-007 advances. Balance sheet. At June 30, 2026 the company held $136.2 million in cash and marketable securities and had no borrowings. The main claim ahead of shareholders is a $2.6 million contingent-value-right payable owed to Inmagene's former holders from the sale of the non-OX40 assets. In April 2026 it raised $30.0 million gross by selling 5,770,335 pre-funded warrants at $5.199 each. We count these as shares: 11,279,130 common shares plus the warrants gives about 17.05 million. Management says the cash covers at least the next 12 months. How we valued it. A Phase 2b result, a partnership or an approval has not happened yet, so none of the three cases gives IMG-007 any commercial value. Each case is today's cash, less the $2.6 million payable, less the cash the company will spend (discounted at 6%) to get the trial to its readout and wrap up. Returning the leftover cash to shareholders is not guaranteed; that residual cash is simply what the evidence supports. We started from 2025's roughly $44 million annual spend, which was 123% higher than 2024's. We did not assume improvement beyond the first-half 2026 run rate of about $41 million a year. Bull case. Spending runs at the first-half 2026 pace of about $41 million a year for 18 months, through a 2027 readout. That spending is worth -$58.7 million today. The company owes $2.6 million against $136.2 million of cash, leaving about $74.8 million, or $4.39 per share. Base case. Spending runs at the 2025 level of about $44 million a year for 24 months. This allows for the protocol amendment, new sites outside North America, and a readout late in 2027 plus close-out. That spending is worth -$82.9 million, leaving about $50.7 million, or $2.98 per share. Bear case. The amended protocol, the added sites and the extra manufacturing runs the company says it needs push spending to about $50 million a year for 30 months. That spending is worth -$116.0 million, leaving about $17.6 million, or $1.03 per share. Hutchmed milestone payments on top of this would push the bear case toward zero. What would make this wrong. On the upside, a positive Phase 2b readout followed by a licensing deal would give IMG-007 real value, which we deliberately do not count. On the downside, the company could keep spending well past the readout and raise more money. Each new financing dilutes shareholders' claim on the cash, as the April 2026 pre-funded warrant sale already has. The per-share values rest mostly on cash and on how fast it is spent, not on the drug.