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Good Times Restaurants Inc. (GTIM) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Margin of safety$0.28 Updated
$0.51 $4.99
bear $0.51 base $2.01 bull $4.99 margin of safety $0.28 market price* $1.39
Good Times Restaurants operates about sixty-seven restaurants across two banners, the full-service Bad Daddy's Burger Bar and the Good Times drive-thru chain, plus a small franchised base, on $142 million of revenue. Owner earnings have been erratic: expansion spending consumed cash through 2019, the business produced real free cash from 2020 through 2023, and fiscal 2025 turned negative as same-store sales fell at both brands and lease exits drained cash. Nearly every restaurant is leased, leaving about $39 million of future rent commitments against roughly $4 million of annual cash operating profit, so small swings in traffic move free cash sharply. The pandemic year was among its better cash years, so the downside case reflects today's industry traffic cycle rather than an economic shock. The base case assumes modest pricing-led growth and the bull case a margin recovery. Free cash is thin and volatile, so we anchor on the bear case and demand a further discount near forty-five percent.
Fiscal yearOwner's earningsMethodology
2025 -$0.15 ▼
OE = CFO - Capex - SBC = 1,613 - 3,067 - 112 = -1,566 (USD thousands); / 10,703,219 diluted shares = $-0.146/share. Operating cash flow was depressed by roughly $1,277 thousand of cash lease payments in excess of lease expense and by an $824 thousand non-cash deferred tax benefit included in net income; a further $504 thousand of restaurant acquisitions from franchisees and $350 thousand of lease-termination payments sit in investing activities and are excluded. Fiscal 2025 was a 53-week year ended 30 September 2025. Source: FY2025 10-K (accession 0001214659-25-018518).
2024 $0.17 ▼
OE = CFO - Capex - SBC = 5,130 - 3,142 - 134 = 1,854 (USD thousands); / 11,147,563 diluted shares = $0.166/share. Capital spending of $3,142 thousand ran below depreciation and amortization of $3,849 thousand; a further $534 thousand paid to acquire restaurants from franchisees sits in investing activities and is excluded. Source: FY2024 10-K (accession 0001214659-24-020434).
2023 $0.26 ▼
OE = CFO - Capex - SBC = 7,965 - 4,771 - 131 = 3,063 (USD thousands); / 11,827,752 diluted shares = $0.259/share. The year's $11,086 thousand of net income was driven mainly by a non-cash release of the deferred tax valuation allowance and is not reflected in operating cash flow. This figure excludes $1,326 thousand paid to acquire restaurants from franchisees and $4,394 thousand paid to buy out noncontrolling partnership interests, both shown in investing activities. Source: FY2023 10-K (accession 0001437749-23-034439).
2022 $0.19 ▼
OE = CFO - Capex - SBC = 5,291 - 2,641 - 250 = 2,400 (USD thousands); / 12,464,408 diluted shares = $0.193/share. Operating cash flow fell as commodity and labor inflation compressed restaurant-level margins. There are no finance-lease principal payments in financing activities, so no lease-funded capital spending is hidden outside this calculation. Source: FY2022 10-K (accession 0001214659-22-014979).
2021 $0.44 ▼
OE = CFO - Capex - SBC = 9,145 - 3,198 - 362 = 5,585 (USD thousands); / 12,828,180 diluted shares = $0.435/share. Capital spending was held far below the FY2016-FY2019 expansion run rate, and the $11,778 thousand gain on Paycheck Protection Program loan forgiveness is a non-cash item excluded from operating cash flow. Fiscal year ends the last Tuesday of September. Source: FY2021 10-K (accession 0001214659-21-013281).

Owner's earnings per share by fiscal year, most recent first. Tap a row to see how that figure was calculated, including the source filing.

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