Golden Growers Cooperative (GGROU) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Golden Growers Cooperative is a farmer-owned cooperative with one asset that matters: a 50% membership interest in ProGold LLC, which owns a corn wet-milling plant (built in 1995) in Wahpeton, North Dakota, leased to Cargill, which owns the other 50%. The Cooperative has no plant of its own. It collects its share of ProGold's cash and passes it to its 15,490,480 units. Its own costs are small (about $0.4 million a year of operating cash outflow). This is a wind-down, not an ongoing business. Cargill's lease of the plant, at $16 million a year, expires December 31, 2026. In December 2024 the Cooperative and Cargill said a long-term joint venture would not be possible, and under the Operating Agreement Cargill will buy the Cooperative's 50% interest for $81 million (plus half of any lease payments still owing at closing, which should be none) within 30 days after the lease ends. Members approved a Plan of Liquidation and Dissolution in 2025: after the sale, the board sets a reserve for debts, then distributes the remaining proceeds and other assets to members. Our value is therefore the sale price and the last months of lease-related distributions, not a stream of earnings. Nothing that can be named and evidenced continues after early 2027, so the business beyond the sale is worth $0. What the numbers show. Cash flow from operations is negative each year because ProGold's distributions are reported under investing activities. Counting them as the operating return they economically are, owner earnings ran about $0.27 to $0.65 per unit over 2016-2025 (2025: $0.485; 2024: $0.459; 2023: $0.470). That was about 5.6% growth in 2025, but growth is irrelevant here because the lease is fixed at $16 million for 2026 and the earnings stream ends. We did not use an earnings multiple; the earnings history only confirms the roughly $8 million a year that ProGold has been paying out to the Cooperative (2025: $7.9 million). Base case, about $5.30 per unit: $81 million / 15.49 million units is about $5.23, plus roughly $3 million of second-half 2026 distributions (about half of the $6.5 million of ProGold income recorded in 2025, less Cooperative costs), less a few months of time value at 6%. Bear case, about $4.95: the $81 million is delayed to mid-2027 by liquidation mechanics, about $0.6 million of costs and reserves is held back, and no further 2026 distributions are counted (some may already have been paid out). Bull case, about $5.40: the sale closes in January 2027 and roughly $4 million (about half of the contracted second-half lease payments) reaches members. The bands are tight because the price is contractual and Cargill has already elected to buy. What is left out. Under our approach we do not add the Cooperative's own balance sheet on top of these values. At December 31, 2025 it held $1.2 million of cash and $4.6 million of short-term investments; members should expect some of this to be paid out in liquidation, so actual distributions could exceed our figures by up to about $0.35 to $0.40 per unit, less reserves. We also did not count ProGold's $14.1 million book value, which is irrelevant beside the $81 million price. What could make this wrong: the $81 million is set by the Operating Agreement and Cargill's stated decision, but we did not see a signed purchase agreement, and details of the reserve, expenses and timing of the final distribution are not disclosed, so the amount and date members actually receive could differ. Tax on the sale gain would fall on members rather than the Cooperative, and its size depends on each member's basis, which we cannot see. We could not reconcile second-half 2026 distribution amounts from the filings available; they are estimated from the 2025 pattern and the contracted lease payment.