New Concept Energy, Inc. (GBR) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

New Concept Energy is a very small Dallas-based holding company with two employees. Since it sold its Ohio and West Virginia oil and gas wells in August 2020, it has had three sources of income: (1) about 190 acres in Parkersburg, West Virginia with four buildings totalling about 53,000 square feet, of which about 16,000 square feet of the main building is leased for $103,000 a year; (2) a fee of 10% of the revenue from the wells it sold, under a consulting agreement either side can end on 60 days' notice ($52,000 in 2025); and (3) interest on a $3.54 million unsecured note owed by American Realty Investors, an affiliate in the same Dallas real-estate group whose service company, Pillar Income Asset Management, also handles New Concept's administration. The note floats with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3.87% at the end of 2025) and is due September 30, 2027. The company says it intends to operate or sell the West Virginia property and is looking to establish or acquire a new business. Its operations are tiny, but it owns real assets, including a property with a paying tenant, and it does not describe itself as a shell company. WHAT THE BUSINESS EARNS. Rent less property costs is about $47,000 a year and the management fee about $50,000, against corporate overhead of $335,000 to $364,000 a year in 2023-2025, running nearer $400,000 a year in the first half of 2026. Before interest income the company loses roughly $250,000-$280,000 a year. Owner earnings (cash from operations with working-capital swings removed, less the capital spending needed to maintain the property) were -$19,000, -$25,000 and -$32,000 in 2023, 2024 and 2025, under one cent a share each year. Those years were cushioned by interest: while the note paid about $212,000 a year (2021-2024), interest covered most of the overhead and book equity held between $4.4 and $4.6 million. With the rate now floating, interest fell to $169,000 in 2025 and $72,000 in the first half of 2026, and the loss widened to $80,000 for that half-year. We exclude one-time items: other income of $191,000 in 2021 and $131,000 in 2022, and a $50,000 recovery in 2025 on a note written off earlier. Years before 2020 describe the former oil and gas business and are not used. The company has no debt. HOW WE VALUE IT. The company keeps its cash rather than paying it out, so what shareholders own is whatever is left when the assets are finally turned into cash for them, after the overhead has eaten into them and after the wait. At June 30, 2026 the company had $304,000 of cash, the $3.54 million note, about $66,000 of other assets and about $616,000 of property at cost, against $116,000 of payables: book equity of $4.41 million, about $0.86 a share. Owners cannot count on that figure. Nothing in the filings points to a liquidation or a payout, and the overhead uses some of it up every year. Base case ($0.22 a share): the company carries on as it has since 2020. The note is repaid or rolled over at a short-term rate of about 3.75%. Rent holds, the fee eases 3% a year as the wells decline, and overhead runs at $370,000 rising 2% a year. Net assets shrink by about $140,000 in the first year and faster after that, leaving about $1.67 million of financial assets by 2036. We treat that remaining pool, plus the property at about $600,000 (roughly what its rent would capitalise to) and less about $200,000 of wind-up or transaction costs, as what owners finally receive: about $2.07 million in 2036, worth about $1.15 million today. No growth is credited, because none is contracted or comes from a repeatable process. The new business management is seeking has not been identified, so it is valued at nothing; it could add value or destroy it. Bear case ($0.02 a share): short-term rates go back to near zero, as they were in 2009-2015 and again in 2020-2021. From 2027 the money (whether still lent to the affiliate on floating terms or held as cash after repayment) earns about 0.25% for six years. The buyer of the wells ends the fee in 2028, the single building tenant leaves in 2030 while property costs continue, and overhead runs at $400,000 rising 3% a year. Financial assets are used up around 2035, when the land would have to be sold; we assume $400,000 less $200,000 of costs. A loss on the affiliate note would only bring that date forward; the group has had affiliate receivables written off before, and in 2015 the company recovered $1.43 million of one. The bear value is close to zero either way. Bull case ($0.57 a share): the note is repaid in full in September 2027 and the cash earns about 4.25%. Overhead holds at its 2021-2025 average of about $340,000, the fee holds at $55,000 and rent rises 2% a year. Within five years the company turns its assets into cash for owners. That fits its long record of changing businesses: retirement communities as Greenbriar Corporation, cable television as CabelTel International, then oil and gas, which it sold in 2020. Owners would receive about $3.92 million in 2031 ($3.32 million of financial assets, plus the property valued on its rent at about $750,000, less $150,000 of costs), worth about $2.93 million today. DEBT. The company owes nothing apart from routine payables, so in every case its value is simply the business and its assets: about $1.15 million (base), $0.12 million (bear) and $2.93 million (bull) in today's money, with no borrowings to subtract. LISTING. NYSE American can start a delisting review when equity falls below $4 million and the company has had losses in three of its last four years. New Concept lost money in 2023, 2024 and 2025 and had equity of $4.41 million at June 2026. At the current rate of loss it would fall below $4 million around 2028-2029. No notice has been received. MARGIN-OF-SAFETY PRICE. How sure are we of the earnings level? Very sure that day-to-day operations lose money. The real unknowns are the rate earned on the $3.5 million and how fast overhead grows. The worst plausible outcome is that the money stays in the company for good, earning little or lent to affiliates, while overhead uses it up. Shareholders have no power to force a payout: the largest holder, Realty Advisors, owns 7.8%, and the directors own no shares. With no debt there is no bankruptcy risk, but nothing stops a slow drain. The things we are most likely to be wrong about are (1) when, if ever, the assets reach owners (a payout at five years would make the base worth about $0.48; at fifteen years it would be worth almost nothing), (2) the rate earned on the cash, and (3) what the land would sell for, which is unknown (it is carried at about $2,300 an acre). Nothing is paid to owners over the holding period: there has been no dividend in at least ten years. On today's facts no margin-of-safety price applies, because any return depends on an event the filings do not promise. If the board announces a liquidation, a sale of the company or a tender offer, cash could reach owners in about two to two-and-a-half years, given the September 2027 note maturity. That would be roughly $3.4-3.5 million of financial assets plus perhaps $300,000-$500,000 from the land, less about $300,000 of wind-up costs: about $0.65-$0.72 a share. From $0.43, that implies about 20% a year if the process takes two and a half years and the land fetches the middle of that range, with some cushion if it moves faster. So $0.43 is the margin-of-safety price, and it applies only once such an announcement has been made.