Invesco CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (FXF) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Invesco CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust is not an operating business. It holds Swiss francs on deposit at JPMorgan Chase Bank's London branch and issues shares, each representing a slice of those francs. Authorized dealers create and redeem shares in large blocks, which keeps the share price close to the value of the francs held. At June 30, 2026 the trust held net assets of about $431.9 million against 3.95 million shares, or about $109.33 per share at that date's exchange rate. Because there are no products, customers or reinvested earnings, the usual owner-earnings approach does not apply; the trust's only cash flows are the fee it pays and the interest it earns or is charged on its deposits. We value a share as the francs it represents today, less the present value of what holding them costs over ten years, discounted at 6%. We do not forecast the franc against the dollar. That is a currency bet, not a property of the trust, so every figure here moves one-for-one with the exchange rate and should be read relative to net asset value per share, not as a price target. Two things drive the cost of holding. First, the sponsor's fee is fixed at 0.40% a year of the francs in the trust. Second, the rate the depository pays or charges on the deposit follows Swiss franc money-market conditions, and the trust's own history shows a wide range. The account charged interest of roughly 0.75% a year from 2015 through 2021, was at zero by the end of 2022, paid 0.50% at the end of 2023, and was back at zero by the end of 2024. The trust earned $318,783 of interest in 2023 and $458,644 in 2024, enough to make a $0.03-per-share distribution in 2024. Since late 2025 the account has charged 0.15% a year: the trust incurred $308,776 of deposit charges in 2025 and $374,249 in the first half of 2026 alone, reflecting both the negative rate and larger assets. Base case ($105.00 per share): today's terms persist, meaning the 0.40% fee plus the current 0.15% deposit charge, a 0.55% annual drag. Ten years of that is worth about 4% of net assets. Bear case ($100.49): the deposit rate returns to the roughly minus 0.75% the trust actually paid for seven years through 2021, for a total drag of 1.15% a year, worth about 8% of net assets over ten years. Bull case ($108.13): deposit rates return to positive territory at about the level the trust actually earned in 2024 (roughly 0.25% to 0.3% of assets), offsetting most of the fee and leaving a net drag near 0.15% a year. The spread between the cases is narrow because the trust's value is almost entirely the francs themselves. What would make these figures wrong: a change in the fee; extraordinary costs the sponsor does not absorb (the trust bears negative-interest charges and legal expenses above $100,000 a year); a failure at the depository, since the francs are an ordinary bank deposit and shareholders would be unsecured creditors of the bank with no claim to specific francs; or a termination of the trust, which would return net assets less costs. Margin-of-safety price: because dealer creation and redemption keep the shares close to net asset value, there is no business improvement that can close a valuation gap the way it can for an operating company. Apart from currency moves, a 20% annual return from the trust itself would require a price at a meaningful discount to net asset value, with that discount later closing. The margin-of-safety price is about $84, roughly 20% below the base case, and it applies only if that price represents a similar discount to the trust's then-current net asset value per share. If the franc has moved and net assets have moved with it, the margin-of-safety price is scaled accordingly.