Invesco CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Invesco CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust is not an operating business. It holds Canadian dollars on deposit at JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., London Branch, and each share represents a slice of that deposit. At June 30, 2026 the trust held about C$107.5 million against 1.1 million shares, roughly C$97.73 per share, worth $68.89 per share in US dollars at that date's exchange rate. Large dealers can create and redeem shares in blocks for Canadian dollars, which is what keeps the share price close to the value of the deposit. Because there are no sales, margins or reinvestment, the usual measure of owner earnings does not apply, and we have not built one. What a shareholder owns is the currency plus the difference between two small cash flows: the interest the depository pays on the primary deposit account, and the sponsor's fee of 0.40% a year on the Canadian dollars in the trust, which covers ordinary expenses. When interest exceeds the fee, the surplus is paid out monthly; when it falls short, the fee is paid out of the deposit itself and the Canadian dollars per share shrink. Our value is the deposit per share plus the present value, at a 6% discount rate over ten years, of that net carry. We hold the exchange rate at its June 30, 2026 level throughout. This is deliberate: we do not forecast the Canadian dollar, and every figure below will move roughly one-for-one with it. None of these figures is a price forecast. The interest rate is the only real variable, and it is set by the depository, which is not obliged to pay the best rate available. The filings give a clear record: 0% at the end of 2019, 2020 and 2021 (the trust earned no interest at all in 2021), then 1.80% at the end of 2022, 2.76% at the end of 2023, 1.31% at the end of 2024 and 0.51% at the end of 2025, a rate still in effect at June 30, 2026. Interest actually earned was about 2.5% of average net assets in 2023, about 2.15% in 2024, about 1.05% in 2025 and about 0.54% annualised in the first half of 2026. Bear case, $66.86: the rate returns to zero, as it was for three straight years from 2019 to 2021, and stays there. The full 0.40% fee then comes out of the deposit each year, which over ten years is worth about $2.03 a share today. Base case, $69.45: the current 0.51% rate, which is also the middle of the 2019-2025 record, persists. Interest slightly more than covers the fee, leaving about 0.11% a year to distribute, worth about $0.56 a share. The first half of 2026 fits this: interest of $202,741 against a fee of $156,873, net income of about $0.04 a share. Bull case, $77.77: the depository pays rates like 2024's, when interest earned was about 2.15% of assets, for the full decade. After the fee, about 1.75% a year is distributed, worth about $8.87 a share. The 2023 peak of 2.76% shows this is within the trust's own record, but it requires rates to hold near that level for ten years. There is no debt and no leverage. The trust is small, with net assets of about $76 million versus $339 million in 2013. If the depository resigns or is removed, or holders of 75% of the shares ask, the trust must be terminated. In that case holders tendering within 90 days receive their Canadian dollars. Closure would not destroy value, but it would end the holding. On the margin-of-safety price: shares like these almost always trade close to the value of the deposit, so a 20% annual return would require a price at a real discount to that value, with the discount later closing. A lower share price caused by a weaker Canadian dollar is not a bargain, because the deposit is worth less by the same amount. The margin-of-safety price is $55, about 20% below the June 30, 2026 value per share, and it applies only if that price is also roughly a 20% discount to the trust's then-current published value per share.