$1.39
$2.91
bear $1.39
base $1.98
bull $2.91
margin of safety $1.00
market price* $3.65
Fulcrum Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotechnology company in Cambridge, Massachusetts. It has no products on the market and no recurring revenue. Its lead drug candidate, pociredir, is an oral pill designed to raise fetal hemoglobin in people with sickle cell disease. Pociredir has completed dosing in a Phase 1b trial, has FDA orphan drug and fast track designations, and the company plans to begin a registration-enabling trial in the second half of 2026, subject to FDA feedback. The company's only revenue in 2024 and 2025 was an $80.0 million upfront payment in 2024 from Sanofi for its other drug, losmapimod, in facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy. Sanofi ended that license after the Phase 3 REACH trial missed its main goal, so no further revenue is expected from it. What the business earns. Our measure of owner earnings (operating cash flow, less working-capital swings, less stock compensation, less the capital spending needed to stay in business) has been negative every year we can measure. Per share it was about -$5.06 in 2019, -$2.85 in 2020, -$2.27 in 2021, -$2.38 in 2022, -$1.67 in 2023, -$0.22 in 2024 and -$1.22 in 2025. The 2024 figure is only mildly negative because it includes the one-time $80.0 million Sanofi payment. Over 2021 to 2025 the median is -$1.67 per share. In dollars, 2025 owner earnings were about -$77.5 million. Capital spending is tiny (about $0.3 million in 2025), so this is almost entirely research and administrative cost. Stock compensation, which is a real cost to shareholders, was $12.5 million in 2025 and is included. Working-capital movements were modest. As a cross-check for 2025, net income of -$74.9 million plus stock compensation, less accretion, less capital spending, comes to about -$65.7 million before small depreciation and lease items, against about -$64.0 million for operating cash flow less working-capital changes, a gap of under 3%. Because the earnings are negative, there is no earnings stream to value. What the shares are worth today is the cash the company holds, minus what management will spend before it stops, plus only what we can name and evidence. At June 30, 2026 the company had about $48.5 million in cash and about $270.4 million in marketable securities, roughly $318.8 million in total, or about $4.18 per share on about 76.3 million shares including pre-funded warrants. We found no term loan in the annual report. Its headquarters lease requires about $7.0 million of payments over 2026 to 2028. Operating cash outflow was $34.8 million in the first half of 2026 against $29.1 million in the first half of 2025, so the annual burn is running near $70 million and rising. In 2025 the company raised $164.2 million of new equity at $13.50 per share, which is why the cash balance is large relative to spending. Growth credited. None. Approval and sales of pociredir have not happened, the registration-enabling trial has not started, and we do not credit success of a drug that has only Phase 1b data. That drug is therefore worth $0 in every case; only cash and dated, evidenced events are included. The cases (each discounted at 6% a year, with no adjustment for risk; risk is reflected only in the difference between cases). Bear case, about $1.39 per share. We assume the planned registration-enabling trial pushes spending to about $90 million a year, the trial does not succeed after about two years, and the company winds down at a cost of about $20 million including the roughly $7.0 million of remaining lease payments. Cash left for shareholders is about $119 million, or about $1.56 per share, worth about $1.39 today. The evidence behind this case is the rising cash outflow ($34.8 million in the first half of 2026 versus $29.1 million a year earlier) and the company's last drug program, losmapimod, which failed in Phase 3. The $90 million spending level is our estimate, not a company figure. Base case, about $1.98 per share. The company keeps spending at about its current rate (about $70 million a year, the first-half 2026 outflow of $34.8 million doubled) for two years, then stops with about $10 million of wind-down cost, leaving about $170 million, or about $2.22 per share, worth about $1.98 today. Anything pociredir might be worth beyond that is not counted because nothing yet supports it. Bull case, about $2.91 per share. As in the base case, plus a licensing payment of $80.0 million in about two years, the size of the payment Sanofi made in May 2024 for losmapimod, which shows the company has done this once. That adds about $1.05 per share before discounting, for about $3.27 per share, worth about $2.91 today. We do not add any royalty or milestone value to it. What has changed in our view: this is the first time we have valued this company, so there is no earlier estimate to compare with. What could make this wrong. The stated value is well below the roughly $4.18 per share of cash today because we assume management keeps spending on a drug we cannot value; if management chose to return the cash, or if the trial were run more cheaply or ended earlier, shareholders would keep more. If pociredir shows strong registration-trial results, its value would be far above anything counted here. Conversely, spending could exceed our assumptions, especially in a registration trial, and future share sales for funding would dilute holders. We could not tie the pociredir trial costs to a specific budget from the annual report, so the burn rate is based on the actual first-half 2026 outflow rather than a company forecast. Margin-of-safety price: $1.00 per share, below the bear-case value, because this is a pre-revenue biotech whose value depends on spending decisions, and the margin of safety must protect against permanent loss of the cash.