$12.10
$41.30
bear $12.10
base $26.90
bull $41.30
margin of safety $14.00
market price* $69.67
TechnipFMC sells subsea oil and gas production systems and the services to install and maintain them (its Subsea segment, $8.67 billion of 2025 revenue), plus wellhead and pressure-control equipment and services for land and shallow-water wells (Surface Technologies, $1.27 billion). Its customers are oil and gas producers, and demand follows their offshore spending. It has been a very different business since the 2021 separation of Technip Energies, so we measure it from 2021 onward. What the numbers say. We measure owner earnings as operating cash flow, less swings in working capital, less stock-based pay, less the part of capital spending needed just to keep the business running. Per share this came to about $0.60 in 2022, $0.49 in 2023, $1.49 in 2024 and $2.88 in 2025 (2021 was roughly zero). Segment operating profit rose from $658 million in 2023 to $1,157 million in 2024 and $1,436 million in 2025. Most of the 2025 improvement came from Subsea, whose profit rose to $1,299 million from $953 million; Surface Technologies fell to $137 million from $204 million. We anchor on the average of 2024 and 2025, about $2.19 per share, because that is the period in which the higher project margins were demonstrated and because the first half of 2026 confirms them (net income of $623 million against $412 million a year earlier, on revenue up about 10%). One caution: in 2025 the company recorded a $142 million favourable adjustment from work completed in earlier periods, which flatters 2025 somewhat. Customer advance payments are also large ($2.1 billion of contract liabilities at year-end 2025, up from $1.8 billion), and we strip the swings in these out of owner earnings rather than count them as profit. Stock-based pay is taken from the cash-flow line that combines it with employee benefit plan costs. Growth we did and did not credit. What is secured is the order backlog: $16.6 billion at the end of 2025 (Subsea $15.9 billion), of which about $6.4 billion is scheduled to convert to revenue in 2026, $4.6 billion in 2027 and $5.6 billion afterwards. It includes named projects such as TotalEnergies GranMorgu, bp Tiber and Kaskida, Shell Orca and Bonga North, and Petrobras Mero 3 and Buzios 6. That supports modest growth in 2026 (we use 8%, below the actual 93% owner-earnings jump in 2025, and consistent with the roughly 10% revenue growth already reported for the first half of 2026) and a little more in 2027 (3%). We did not credit further margin expansion, new orders that have not been won, or a rising oil price. Repurchases ($918 million in 2025) are also not credited to per-share value. Base case, about $26.90 per share. Owner earnings of roughly $2.4 per share through 2028, then a gradual fade as today's backlog is worked off, settling at about $1.35 per share from 2034 and continuing at that level. The $1.35 is close to the average of the four owner-earnings years 2022 to 2025 ($0.60, $0.49, $1.49 and $2.88, or about $1.37), which spans both the weak and the strong part of the recent cycle. We credit the fade rather than perpetual peak earnings because offshore spending is cyclical: the company's own 2026 outlook cites oil forecasts of $50 to $60 a barrel, and the company reported a net loss of about $3.3 billion in 2020. Bear case, about $12.10 per share. The scheduled 2026 backlog is delivered, but new subsea awards slow: earnings slip to about $1.70 in 2027 (the 2027 backlog of $4.6 billion is well below 2026's $6.4 billion) and $1.20 in 2028, then settle at about $0.54 per share, the average of 2022 and 2023. The company also notes that it may lose money on fixed-price contracts, that its largest Subsea customer was 15.5% of Subsea revenue in 2025, and that Surface Technologies backlog shrank to $700 million from $858 million. Bull case, about $41.30 per share. Backlog converts as scheduled and 2025's earnings level is held and grown modestly (about $3.10 in 2026 and $3.30 in 2027 and 2028), then fades only to $2.20 per share, the 2024 to 2025 average, because Subsea has booked more than $10 billion of orders in each of the last two years (about $30 billion over the three years to 2025 per the company) and more than 80% of 2025 Subsea orders were direct awards, integrated projects and services. Financial position. The company held $1.03 billion of cash against $430 million of debt at the end of 2025, a net cash position of about $602 million. Because owner earnings already reflect interest paid, we do not deduct debt again. With net cash, leverage is not what drives the bear case; the offshore cycle and project execution are. What would make this wrong: a sharper or longer offshore downturn than the bear case assumes, cost overruns on fixed-price work, cancellation or delay of large projects in the backlog, or 2025's margin proving to be a one-time high. The filing does not tie the $142 million favourable adjustment to specific projects, so we could not test how repeatable it is. The margin-of-safety price is $14.00, near the bear case and roughly half the base case, reflecting an oilfield services business that is cyclical, project-based and tied to commodity-driven spending.