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FIRST HORIZON CORP (FHN) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Margin of safety$16.00 ComplexityHigh Updated
$22.13 $30.68
bear $22.13 base $28.68 bull $30.68 margin of safety $16.00 market price* $22.88
Fiscal yearOwner's earningsMethodology
2025 $1.93 ▼
Bank basis: raw operating cash flow (CFO=$628M) is unusable for a lender because it swings with loans-held-for-sale and trading flows (CFO 2024 $1,268M; 2022 $2,291M), and provision for credit losses is a real recurring cost that must not be added back. OE = net income available to common + D&A - SBC add-back netted out (SBC $61M is expensed in net income and added back in CFO, then subtracted, net zero) - maintenance capex. Net income to common=$956M (NI $982M less preferred dividends $26M); D&A=$64M; capex=$33M, treated all as maintenance (growth capex not separable); working-capital and held-for-sale flows excluded; OE=$987M; diluted shares=511.107M; OE/sh=$1.93. Note FY2025 provision ($65M) was below net charge-offs ($120M), so this year includes a ~$55M pre-tax reserve release. Source: FY2025 10-K, accession 0000036966-26-000051.
2024 $1.46 ▼
Bank basis (CFO $1,268M distorted by loans-held-for-sale flows; provision not added back). OE = net income to common + D&A - SBC net zero (SBC $59M expensed in NI) - maintenance capex. NI to common=$738M (NI $775M less preferred dividends $37M); D&A=$101M; capex=$44M all treated as maintenance; OE=$795M; diluted shares=544.285M; OE/sh=$1.46. FY2024 provision ($150M) exceeded net charge-offs ($112M), so this year carries a reserve build. Source: FY2024 10-K accession 0000036966-25-000024 and FY2025 10-K accession 0000036966-26-000051.
2023 $1.66 ▼
Bank basis (CFO $1,299M distorted by loans-held-for-sale flows; provision not added back). OE = net income to common + D&A - SBC net zero (SBC $36M expensed in NI) - maintenance capex. NI to common=$865M (NI $897M less preferred dividends $32M); D&A=$102M; capex=$37M all treated as maintenance; OE=$930M; diluted shares=561.732M; OE/sh=$1.66. FY2023 includes a merger termination fee received from TD (raises income) and merger-related expense (lowers it); both are non-recurring and roughly offsetting in direction, amounts not netted here. Source: FY2023 10-K accession 0000036966-24-000015; FY2025 10-K accession 0000036966-26-000051.
2022 $1.63 ▼
Bank basis (CFO $2,291M distorted by loans-held-for-sale runoff; provision not added back). OE = net income to common + D&A - SBC net zero (SBC $75M expensed in NI) - maintenance capex. NI to common=$868M (NI $900M less preferred dividends $32M); D&A=$85M (as restated in later filings); capex=$28M all treated as maintenance; OE=$925M; diluted shares=566.004M; OE/sh=$1.63. Source: FY2022 10-K accession 0000036966-23-000016; FY2023 10-K accession 0000036966-24-000015.
2021 $1.76 ▼
Bank basis (CFO $725M as restated, distorted by loans-held-for-sale flows; provision not added back). OE = net income to common + D&A - SBC net zero (SBC $43M expensed in NI) - maintenance capex. NI to common=$962M (NI $999M less preferred dividends $37M); D&A=$45M (as restated in later filings); capex=$37M all treated as maintenance; OE=$970M; diluted shares=551.241M; OE/sh=$1.76. Source: FY2021 10-K accession 0000036966-22-000015; FY2023 10-K accession 0000036966-24-000015.
2019 $1.43 ▼
Bank basis (CFO $830M distorted by trading-securities and held-for-sale flows; provision not added back). OE = net income to common + D&A - SBC net zero (SBC $22M expensed in NI) - maintenance capex. NI to common=$434.7M (NI $440.9M less preferred dividends $6.2M); D&A=$65.2M; capex=$49.2M all treated as maintenance; OE=$450.8M; diluted shares=315.657M; OE/sh=$1.43. Pre-2020 figures describe the smaller company before the 2020 IBERIABANK merger. Source: FY2019 10-K accession 0000930413-20-000605.
2018 $1.71 ▼
Bank basis (CFO $234.3M distorted by trading-securities and held-for-sale flows; provision not added back). OE = net income to common + D&A - SBC net zero (SBC $23.2M expensed in NI) - maintenance capex. NI to common=$538.8M (NI $545.0M less preferred dividends $6.2M); D&A=$59.1M; capex=$38.2M all treated as maintenance; OE=$559.8M; diluted shares=327.445M; OE/sh=$1.71. Pre-2020 figures describe the smaller company before the 2020 IBERIABANK merger. Source: FY2018 10-K accession 0000930413-19-000767.

Owner's earnings per share by fiscal year, most recent first. Tap a row to see how that figure was calculated, including the source filing.

Sales geography
United States, principally the South: Tennessee, North Carolina, Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina and Virginia; national fixed income and specialty lending
Historical growth strategy

We don't have historical growth strategy information for this company yet.

Chart analysis
The filing's five-year total shareholder return chart (December 31, 2020 = 100) reads 132.6 (2021), 204.2 (2022), 123.5 (2023), 182.4 (2024) and 222.7 (2025). A chartist would see a strong uptrend punctuated by one sharp air pocket. The 2022 peak was inflated by TD's pending all-cash offer of over $25 per share; when regulators blocked the deal in May 2023 the shares gapped down by roughly 40% and the takeover premium was erased, but the bounce off the 2023 low was strong, and the 2025 reading is a series of higher highs above the 2022 deal-inflated level, which chartists would call a completed base-and-breakout pattern. Trend and momentum look constructive, with resistance around the prior highs. Note that the 2022 level is a deal-driven outlier, and that the index does not show volume or the current price.
Competitors

We don't have competitor information for this company yet.

Circle of competence

We don't have circle of competence information for this company yet.