Edgewise Therapeutics, Inc. (EWTX) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Edgewise Therapeutics is a clinical-stage drug developer with no products approved and no revenue to date. Its lead candidate, sevasemten, is an oral medicine for Becker and Duchenne muscular dystrophy; a pivotal cohort in Becker (GRAND CANYON) completed enrollment in February 2025. Its second candidate, EDG-7500, is in a Phase 2 trial for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, and EDG-15400 is in an early trial in healthy adults. Because there are no sales, the business consumes cash rather than producing it. Our owner-earnings measure (operating cash flow, less working-capital swings, less stock compensation, less maintenance capital spending) was negative every year: about -$1.11 per share in 2021, -$1.34 in 2022, -$1.76 in 2023, -$1.53 in 2024 and -$1.66 in 2025 (2025: cash used in operations $143.8M, stock compensation $34.8M). Stock compensation is treated as a real cost here, which is why the loss is larger than the cash burn. In the first half of 2026 cash used in operations was $85.0M, an annual pace of about $170M. Our cross-check of net loss plus non-cash items against cash flow agreed within about 2%. We only credit value we can name and evidence. A drug that has not been approved, has no signed sales contract and has no revenue history is not evidenced value, so the medicines are worth $0 in every case. What remains is the cash. The company held $530.1M of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at December 31, 2025 and says this funds operations for at least the next 12 months. Subtracting the $85.0M of cash used in the first half of 2026 and about $0.3M of equipment purchases leaves roughly $445M, or about $4.13 per share on 107.7M diluted shares (the second quarter 2026 average). This is our estimate; we did not confirm the mid-2026 balance from the quarterly balance sheet. Bear case, $0.97 per share: the trials fail or stall, and the company spends about two more years at the current pace of roughly $170M a year (about $340M) before stopping, leaving about $105M. Base case, $2.55 per share: development continues for one more year at that pace (about $170M), leaving about $275M, with no value credited to the pipeline. Bull case, $4.13 per share: the remaining cash is preserved, meaning the pipeline earns back what it costs. We did not include approval, a launch or peak sales, because none of that has happened yet. No debt adjustment is needed since our figures are equity values. What would make this wrong: if sevasemten's pivotal Becker data are positive and regulators agree on a path to approval, the drug would be worth far more than the cash, and all three of our figures would be too low. Conversely, higher spending or new share sales would reduce per-share value. A rare-disease medicine with a working mechanism can be very valuable, but that outcome is not yet in the filings, so we leave it out. The margin-of-safety price is well under the bear case, $0.75 per share, because the company is spending its own cash reserves with no earnings to fall back on.