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EDISON INTERNATIONAL (EIX) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Margin of safety$16.47 Updated
$27.45 $79.78
bear $27.45 base $61.11 bull $79.78 margin of safety $16.47 market price* $55.56
Edison International's utility, Southern California Edison, earns an authorized 10.03% return on a $48 billion rate base. Per-share earnings have compounded at only about 3% a year over the past decade, since equity issued to fund rate-base growth absorbs most of the gain, and 2025's reported profit is not repeatable, lifted by recoveries of 2017/2018 fire costs. The dominant issue is the January 2025 Eaton Fire: management says its equipment was likely associated with the ignition, that further material losses are probable, and that a range of losses cannot yet be estimated. A state wildfire fund of over $21 billion stands behind claims above $1 billion, and shareholder reimbursement is capped near $4.3 billion absent a finding of willful disregard. The bear case assumes that cap is fully borne plus a further fire, the base a partial disallowance, the bull a prudency finding in the company's favor. Because the liability is unknowable today, we anchor on the bear case and discount it a further 40%.
Fiscal yearOwner's earningsMethodology
2025 $11.55 ▼
OE = net income available to common = 4,701 - 244 = 4,457 (USD millions); / 386 million diluted shares = $11.55/share, which ties to reported diluted EPS of $11.55. Regulated-utility basis: owner earnings are net income available to common rather than CFO - Capex - SBC, because rate-base growth capital spending makes the cash-flow formula structurally negative for a healthy utility (2025 CFO 5,800 less capex 6,515 = -715), and share-based compensation is already expensed in net income. This year is heavily distorted by non-recurring items: management's core earnings were 2,520 (core EPS $6.53), the difference being 1,939 of after-tax non-core gains dominated by 2,961 pre-tax of cost recoveries on the 2017/2018 Wildfire/Mudslide Events under the TKM and Woolsey Settlement Agreements. Core earnings themselves also contain 414 pre-tax (about 298 after tax, $0.77/share) of non-recurring interest-expense benefit from those settlements, so normalized core earnings are about 2,222, or $5.76/share, and that is the figure the valuation uses. Source: FY2025 10-K (accession 0000827052-26-000012).
2024 $3.31 ▼
OE = net income available to common = 1,546 - 262 = 1,284 (USD millions); / 388 million diluted shares = $3.31/share, which ties to reported diluted EPS of $3.31. Regulated-utility basis: owner earnings are net income available to common rather than CFO - Capex - SBC, because rate-base growth capital spending makes the cash-flow formula structurally negative for a healthy utility (2024 CFO 5,014 less capex 5,707 = -693), and share-based compensation is already expensed in net income. Non-recurring items were a net 616 after-tax charge, principally 493 pre-tax of 2017/2018 Wildfire/Mudslide Event claim costs, 162 of other wildfire claims, 146 of Wildfire Fund amortization and 50 of severance; management's core earnings were 1,900, or $4.90/share. Source: FY2024 10-K (accession 0000827052-25-000022).
2023 $3.11 ▼
OE = net income available to common = 1,407 - 210 = 1,197 (USD millions); / 385 million diluted shares = $3.11/share, which ties to reported diluted EPS of $3.11. Regulated-utility basis: owner earnings are net income available to common rather than CFO - Capex - SBC, because rate-base growth capital spending makes the cash-flow formula structurally negative for a healthy utility (2023 CFO 3,401 less capex 5,448 = -2,047), and share-based compensation is already expensed in net income. Non-recurring items were a net 628 after-tax charge, principally 2017/2018 Wildfire/Mudslide Event claims and 213 of Wildfire Fund amortization; management's core earnings were 1,825, or $4.74/share. Source: FY2023 10-K (accession 0000827052-24-000013).
2022 $1.60 ▼
OE = net income available to common = 824 - 212 = 612 (USD millions); / 383 million diluted shares = $1.60/share, which ties to reported diluted EPS of $1.60. Regulated-utility basis: owner earnings are net income available to common rather than CFO - Capex - SBC, because rate-base growth capital spending makes the cash-flow formula structurally negative for a healthy utility (2022 CFO 3,216 less capex 5,778 = -2,562), and share-based compensation is already expensed in net income. Non-recurring items were a net 1,153 after-tax charge, dominated by 2017/2018 Wildfire/Mudslide Event claims and 214 of Wildfire Fund amortization; management's core earnings were 1,765, or $4.61/share. Source: FY2022 10-K (accession 0000827052-23-000010).
2021 $2.00 ▼
OE = net income available to common = 925 - 166 = 759 (USD millions); / 380 million diluted shares = $2.00/share, which ties to reported diluted EPS of $2.00. Regulated-utility basis: owner earnings are net income available to common rather than CFO - Capex - SBC, because rate-base growth capital spending makes the cash-flow formula structurally negative for a healthy utility, and share-based compensation is already expensed in net income. Non-recurring items were a net 982 after-tax charge, principally 2017/2018 Wildfire/Mudslide Event claims and 215 of Wildfire Fund amortization; management's core earnings were 1,741, or $4.58/share. Source: FY2021 10-K (accession 0000827052-22-000006).

Owner's earnings per share by fiscal year, most recent first. Tap a row to see how that figure was calculated, including the source filing.

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