$0.00
$0.90
bear $0.00
base $0.63
bull $0.90
margin of safety $0.30
market price* $1.96
Business condition attached to the margin of safety
Operating cash flow after stock-based pay at or above break-even for at least two consecutive quarters, without reliance on sales of securities received as fees, and a share count that has stopped rising.
Dominari Holdings (formerly AIkido Pharma, originally Spherix) is now a small financial-services holding company. Its main operating business, Dominari Securities, is a broker-dealer and investment adviser acquired in March 2023. It earns commissions and advisory fees from wealth-management clients and, more importantly, underwriting and placement fees from small and mid-sized public companies. The old biotech pipeline is being wound down. Because the company is a broker-dealer, we treat borrowing as part of the business and subtract no debt; interest paid is negligible ($11 thousand in the first half of 2026). What the business has actually earned. After counting stock-based pay as a real cost, owner earnings have been negative every year since the broker-dealer was acquired: about -$20.3 million (-$3.88 per share) in 2023, -$9.7 million (-$1.57) in 2024 and -$71.5 million (-$5.01) in 2025. Revenue grew from $2.0 million in 2023 to $18.1 million in 2024 (later restated to $21.0 million) and $123.1 million in 2025, but the 2025 operating loss was still $55.7 million, largely because $55.0 million of pay was settled in stock (employees $34.0 million, outside advisors $21.0 million). Reported 2025 operating cash flow of +$22.7 million was driven by a $39.3 million working-capital inflow (receivables from clearing brokers, accrued compensation and taxes payable), which we strip out because it is timing, not earnings. We also left out the 2025 gain on the company's stake in American Bitcoin ($39.4 million, sold after year-end) because it is a one-time investment gain, not a repeatable earnings stream. Revenue is lumpy: it was $35.8 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $16.8 million in the second quarter (versus $38.9 million in the second quarter of 2025). In the second quarter the operating loss narrowed to $1.1 million, but a single near-break-even quarter does not establish earning power. First-half 2026 operating cash flow was -$38.8 million. Between year-end 2025 and June 30, 2026, shareholders' equity fell from $69.4 million to $21.8 million, and shares outstanding rose to 24.2 million (weighted 14.3 million in 2025 and 6.2 million in 2024). How we valued it. There is no positive earnings stream we can point to, so per our rules the operating business is credited with $0 in every case: no growth is treated as secured or proven, and we left out share-of-market gains, margin improvement and any repeat of the 2025 revenue surge as unproven. What remains is the value of the assets net of everything owed. At June 30, 2026 the company had total assets of $57.4 million (cash $25.0 million, receivable from its clearing broker $6.0 million, private equity holdings carried at $10.3 million) and total liabilities of $35.5 million (including $8.2 million of employee-related accruals and $7.8 million of contract liabilities), leaving $21.8 million of equity, or $0.90 per share on 24.24 million shares. Bear case: $0.00 per share. The cost of staying in business, largely stock-based, continues to exceed fees; the cash burn seen in the first half (-$38.8 million) drains the balance sheet and revenue stays near second-quarter levels. On a wind-down basis, cash plus the clearing-broker receivable plus half the carrying value of the private holdings comes to about $36.2 million against $35.5 million of liabilities, a difference of only about $0.7 million (about $0.03 per share) before wind-down costs, lease obligations and further share issuance, so shareholders are left with essentially nothing. The business is worth $0 in this case; it owes about $35.5 million of ordinary liabilities and no borrowings. Base case: $0.63 per share. The business continues near break-even before stock pay, as in the second quarter of 2026 and roughly in 2025 before stock compensation, but produces no earnings we can credit. Shareholders keep most of book value: equity of $21.8 million less a 50% haircut on the $10.3 million of private holdings (they are carried at cost and cannot be valued from the filings) gives $16.7 million. We spread that over about 26.7 million shares (today's 24.24 million plus roughly 10% further issuance, because the share count has risen sharply in each of the last two years and stock is the company's main way of paying people). That gives $0.63. Business value $0, net assets after liabilities $16.7 million, no borrowings. Bull case: $0.90 per share. The company holds its book value intact, with the private holdings realised at carrying value and no further share issuance: $21.8 million divided by 24.24 million shares. We did not credit any earnings in this case because none has been demonstrated; a mature-margin fee business would be worth more, but the filings show no year of positive owner earnings on which to base that. Business value $0, net assets after liabilities $21.8 million. Change since our earlier analysis (August 2026). Bear is unchanged at $0.00. Base moves from $0.50 to $0.63 and the bull case falls from $2.50 to $0.90. The earlier bull case assumed an 8% margin and about $4 million of normalised earnings, which relied on margin improvement that has not happened. The base is higher because we now model the balance sheet directly, with explicit haircuts and dilution, rather than a rough estimate of two years of burn. No new filing has appeared since the second-quarter report of August 11, 2026. What would make this wrong. The main risk to the downside is further erosion of book value: equity fell 69% in six months. On the upside, a repeat of the 2025 placement business, where Dominari Securities acted as placement agent for American Bitcoin's $220 million private placement in June 2025, could produce profits that we have not credited. We could not fully trace where the proceeds of the roughly $46 million of securities sales in the first half of 2026 went (operations used $38.8 million and financing used $15.1 million), so we rely on the reported June 30 balance sheet rather than a reconstruction. The company's stock-settled compensation, its lumpy fee income and its dependence on a few transactions make the outcome highly uncertain, which is why the margin-of-safety price is far below even the base value.