CuriosityStream Inc. (CURI) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

CuriosityStream is a subscription streaming service for factual entertainment (science, nature, history, technology) that also licenses its video library to other media companies and, more recently, to technology companies training AI models. In 2025 revenue was $71.7 million. Direct-to-consumer and partner subscriptions were roughly $33.6 million (down from about $38.6 million in 2024 as the subscriber base shrank), library and AI licensing was $33.2 million (up from $7.4 million), bundled distribution was $3.4 million and advertising and other was $1.4 million. How we measure earnings. We start from operating cash flow, remove swings in receivables, payables, accruals and deferred revenue, and then charge stock compensation as a real cost. Content spending (about $13.9 million in 2025) already runs through operating cash flow, so it is treated as an ongoing cost of staying in business; equipment spending is tiny ($0.1 million). On that basis owner earnings per share were negative every year from 2019 through 2023 (for example about -$0.97 in 2022 and -$0.41 in 2023), about +$0.06 in 2024 and about -$0.10 in 2025. Stock compensation jumped from $6.6 million to $14.4 million in 2025 and erased a year of otherwise positive cash generation. We treat 2024 and 2025 as the current business, since the company says it shifted in 2024 and 2025 toward higher-margin revenue and cost reduction; the median of those two years is close to zero, so no meaningful earnings level is credited. Trailing owner earnings fell from 2024 to 2025, and the base case assumes no improvement from that starting point. Base case, about $0.35 per share. The subscription business keeps shrinking at roughly the recent pace and cost cuts roughly offset that, so owner earnings stay near zero. The value is mainly the balance sheet: about $27.4 million of cash and debt securities at the end of 2025 (about $0.45 per share on roughly 60.6 million shares), less some cash consumed over time. AI and library licensing is not counted as a recurring earnings stream: it was 46% of 2025 revenue, it grew more than fourfold in one year, and the filing shows only $3.4 million of contracted future revenue in total ($2.5 million in 2026). The company itself calls these efforts early-stage and says the AI licensing market is new. Bear case, about $0.10 per share. Licensing does not repeat beyond what is contracted, subscriptions keep falling (down about 13% in 2025) and the business returns to the cash burn of 2019 to 2023. The cash pile is worn down over a few years, leaving little more than a small residual value. A $10 million revolving credit facility was arranged in March 2026. Bull case, about $1.40 per share. Licensing revenue stays near its 2025 level, as the first half of 2026 suggests (revenue $38.4 million versus $34.1 million a year earlier, net income $7.6 million), and lifts owner earnings to roughly $0.20 per share for a decade, on top of the cash. Two quarters of results are not enough to make this the central case, and only $3.4 million of future revenue is contractually committed. What was left out. We did not credit growth from AI licensing, new content markets, advertising platforms or margin expansion because none is contracted or has a multi-year record. Non-cash content amortization ($14.5 million in 2025) is added back automatically in cash flow, but the matching cash content spend of $13.9 million is deducted, so the asset is not overstated. What would prove this too low: signed multi-year AI licensing agreements or several more quarters of positive cash generation after stock compensation. What would prove it too high: the licensing revenue disappearing while subscribers continue to decline. Cash flow from working capital swung materially between 2025 (inflow) and the first half of 2026 (outflow of about $13 million), so single-year figures are noisy.