$6.50
$33.00
bear $6.50
base $21.50
bull $33.00
margin of safety $11.00
market price* $25.47
Constellium makes specialty aluminum sheet, plate and extruded products from 24 plants, mainly in the United States, France, Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic. In 2025 its Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products segment (beverage can sheet and auto sheet) was 60% of revenue, Aerospace & Transportation 23% and Automotive Structures & Industry 19%. Aerospace & Transportation earns the most for its size, at 47% of segment profit. The company is an aluminum converter, so much of its revenue simply passes through metal prices; 2025 revenue of $8.4 billion rose partly because aluminum prices climbed after the 2025 tariff announcements, and that rise is not treated as lasting earning power. How we measure earnings. We start from cash generated by operations, remove swings in inventory, receivables and payables, deduct share-based pay as a real cost, and deduct only the capital spending needed to keep the plants running (spending tied to sales growth is excluded). On that basis owner earnings per share were $0.78 in 2023, $0.01 in 2024 and $2.59 in 2025. The 2024 figure was depressed by a January 2024 weather event at the Muscle Shoals plant and by capital spending of $413 million; 2025 spending was $330 million as Muscle Shoals operated better. Only three years could be verified in the filings we used, so the history is short. We set the earnings level at about $1.69 a share, the midpoint of 2023 and 2025, and set 2024 aside as distorted by the weather event. We used $1.69 rather than the 2025 figure because 2025 benefited from a working-capital build that we removed but also from strong year-end automotive demand caused by short-term supply shortages, which management describes as temporary. Growth: 2025 earnings rose sharply from a near-zero 2024, but that reflects recovery from an abnormal year, and we assume 0% growth from that level in year one. No growth is credited in any case: aerospace recovery, canstock demand and automotive supply gaps are market conditions, not secured contracts. Base case, about $21.50 a share: earnings hold at about $1.69 a share for 25 years and nothing after. Evidence for holding: a plant base that is owned, collective bargaining agreements at Ravenswood and Muscle Shoals extended to 2029 and 2030, and upkeep spending already deducted. We assume nothing beyond 25 years because no evidence supports it. Bear case, about $6.50 a share: earnings fall back to about $0.78 a share, the 2023 level, and last 12 years. Aerospace customers were still reducing aluminum inventories in 2025, European automotive demand was weak, and the company carries about $1.9 billion of debt, including $325 million of 5.625% notes due 2028 and about $800 million of notes due 2029, that would need refinancing. In 2024 earnings fell to roughly zero, so this case is not extreme. Bull case, about $33 a share: earnings stay at the 2025 level of about $2.59 a share for 25 years, which the company has already reached with Muscle Shoals running better. Debt is not deducted from the values above because owner earnings are already after interest paid; leverage is reflected in the bear case. A more favorable path would need aluminum-product demand to hold up through the cycle and the plants to keep running as they did in 2025. Results would be worse than our base if aerospace destocking continues or if auto demand weakens further; the first quarter of 2026 showed operating cash flow of $73 million against $58 million a year earlier, which does not contradict the base. Cash flow reconciled to net income plus depreciation less upkeep capital spending to within about 6% for 2025.