Coya Therapeutics, Inc. (COYA) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Coya Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotechnology company with one lead program: COYA 302, a co-packaged combination of low-dose interleukin-2 and CTLA4-Ig (a proposed abatacept biosimilar licensed from Dr. Reddy's Laboratories) being tested in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). The FDA accepted the company's application to run a Phase 2 study in August 2025, and the first patient in that randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial (called ALSTARS) was dosed in December 2025. Earlier human data come from a four-patient proof-of-concept study presented in March 2023. Coya sells no products. How it earns money today: its revenue in 2024 and 2025 came from its partner Dr. Reddy's, which holds the commercial rights to COYA 302 in ALS in the United States, Canada, the European Union and the United Kingdom, and in most other countries under an earlier license. Dr. Reddy's paid a $7.5 million upfront fee (received January 2024), $3.9 million in June 2024 in exchange for skipping the first $6.0 million of future royalties, and two $4.2 million milestones in 2025 (FDA acceptance of the ALS application in August and first patient dosed in December). The contract also lists up to about $40 million of further development milestones, up to about $677 million of sales milestones and royalties in the low-to-mid teens, but every one of those depends on the drug succeeding in trials and reaching the market. Dr. Reddy's can end the agreement on notice and has the final say if the two companies' joint committee deadlocks. Dr. Reddy's also supplied $10 million of the $11.1 million equity raise in January 2026. Owner earnings (operating cash flow, minus the cash swing from working capital, minus stock-based pay, minus maintenance spending on equipment) have been negative every year: about -$5.0 million in 2021, -$8.2 million in 2022, -$7.4 million in 2023, -$14.8 million in 2024 and -$18.9 million in 2025 (-$1.13 per share), even with the partner payments included. Stock-based pay ($4.3 million in 2025) is treated as a real cost. A $2.3 million non-cash in-process research and development charge in 2025, tied to development milestones, was added back like other non-cash charges. The first half of 2026 cost about $13.9 million, a pace of roughly $27.9 million a year. Losses have deepened each of the last two years (2025 was about 27% worse than 2024), so no case assumes improvement. Because nothing about COYA 302's commercial future can yet be shown from contracts or a track record, no case gives it any value: royalties and milestones that require a successful trial are left out entirely, including the $40 million of development milestones. What shareholders own today is cash, about $43.2 million at June 30, 2026, with no borrowings, spread across about 23.46 million shares. That cash is being spent on the trial, and the company says it lasts into the second half of 2027, after which it will need new money. Each case values the business as the present value of the spending ahead, discounted at 6%, and then adds the cash. Bear case, $0.00 per share: spending runs faster than the first-half 2026 pace and the cash is used up in the second half of 2027, the end of the company's own projected runway. The spending absorbs the entire $43.2 million of cash, the company owes nothing, and nothing is left for today's shareholders; continuing beyond that point would mean selling more shares. Base case, $0.13 per share: spending continues at the first-half 2026 pace of about $27.9 million a year through the end of 2027. The spending is worth about -$40.1 million, the company owes nothing and holds $43.2 million of cash, leaving about $3.1 million. Bull case, $0.68 per share: spending runs at the 2025 net pace of about $18.9 million a year, which assumes Dr. Reddy's keeps paying toward development at roughly its 2025 rate. The spending is worth about -$27.2 million against $43.2 million of cash and no debt, leaving about $16.0 million. These figures do not say COYA 302 will fail; they say its value cannot yet be shown. A positive ALSTARS result followed by more Dr. Reddy's milestones would be the evidence that changes this picture. Until then the shares are a bet on a trial result, not a claim on earnings. Share count has also grown fast, from 16.7 million at the end of 2024 to 23.46 million by mid-2026, including 4,181,818 shares sold at $5.50 in October 2025, and further dilution is likely once the current cash is spent.