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CONNECTICUT LIGHT & POWER CO (CNLHN) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Margin of safety$23.00 ComplexitySimple Updated
This is the 3.90% Series of 1949 preferred stock (ticker CNLHN) of The Connecticut Light and Power Company (CL&P), not an ownership stake in a growing business. CL&P is Eversource Energy's Connecticut electric utility. At the end of 2025 it served about 1.32 million retail customers in 157 Connecticut cities and towns and owned no generating plants. All of CL&P's common stock is held by Eversource, so its public securities are its bonds and its preferred shares. Each preferred share has a $50 par value and pays a fixed 3.90%, or $1.95 a year. Holders receive cumulative dividends ahead of the common stock, and in liquidation they receive $50 plus any unpaid dividends. There is no maturity date and no sinking fund. CL&P's board may redeem the shares at any time at the stated redemption price of $50.50. This series has 160,000 shares outstanding ($8.0 million) out of $116.2 million of CL&P preferred stock in total. How we value it: the dividend is fixed and cannot grow, so we credit no growth. We value the shares as $1.95 a year received indefinitely and discounted at 6%, which gives $32.50 a share. The same value applies to the bear, base and bull cases. We could not name a risk, backed by evidence in the filings, that would interrupt the dividend, so the bear case is not lower. We could not name evidence that CL&P will redeem early, so the bull case is not higher. The redemption price of $50.50 is far above $32.50, and a 3.90% coupon is well below today's rates, so the company has no reason to redeem. Ordinary price swings in the market are not a driver of value here and are not included. Why the dividend looks safe: CL&P earned $551.3 million in 2025 (2024: $512.6 million; 2023: $518.7 million). Dividends on all of its preferred stock together were about $5.6 million in 2023. The total preferred balance of $116.2 million was unchanged in 2024 and 2025. On that basis, 2025 earnings covered the preferred dividends roughly 99 times. Ahead of the preferred, CL&P owes $5.11 billion of long-term debt, and its interest cost was $211.9 million in 2025. Income before tax was $718.5 million, so income before interest was about $930.4 million, roughly 4.4 times the interest bill. The debt is secured, and it is rated A by S&P, A2 by Moody's and A+ by Fitch (Fitch's outlook is negative). Behind the preferred, the book value of common equity is $6.68 billion, roughly 57 times the $116.2 million of preferred. Book value is not a market value, but it shows how large the cushion is. CL&P has no debt maturity or covenant in the filing that we found threatens the preferred dividend. Eversource's own parent-level ratings are lower (S&P BBB, Moody's Baa2 negative), but the preferred is CL&P's obligation and is paid from CL&P's earnings. We found no going-concern or delisting language in the filing. What would make this wrong: a large regulatory or storm-cost loss severe enough to eliminate CL&P's earnings for years, or a decision by the board to redeem the shares. The first would have to be many times larger than anything in the recent record. The second would hand holders $50.50, above our value. What changed from our earlier write-up: the earlier analysis described CL&P's 6.56% Series of 1968 preferred (ticker CNTHP), which pays $3.28 a year. It also used required returns from 7.5% to 10% depending on the case. This analysis covers the 3.90% Series of 1949 that matches ticker CNLHN, and it applies the same 6% rate to every company, so the values are not comparable. Margin-of-safety price: $23.00 is a yield of about 8.5% on the $1.95 dividend. It is a discount of roughly 29% to the $32.50 value. The estimate allows more than the 15% cushion suitable for a very predictable bond-like holding, because this is a very small, rarely traded issue, and because a perpetual security loses value if long-term interest rates keep rising. From that price, the dividend plus a return of the price toward $32.50 over a few years implies a return in the neighbourhood of 20% a year. That implied return depends on the price actually moving to the $32.50 level.

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Sales geography
Connecticut, Northeast United States (retail electric customers in about 157 Connecticut cities and towns)
Historical growth strategy

We don't have historical growth strategy information for this company yet.

Chart analysis
The filings disclose no price history for this issue, so this is a general read of how a chartist would view it. CNLHN is a small, over-the-counter legacy utility preferred with a fixed dividend and no maturity, so its price behaves like a long-dated bond: it tends to move opposite to long-term interest rates rather than with the company's earnings. A chartist would treat support and resistance levels on such a chart as unreliable, and would look mainly for a stable base of prices and a turn in long-term yields before reading a trend.
Competitors

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Circle of competence

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