Compass Therapeutics, Inc. (CMPX) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Compass Therapeutics is a clinical-stage cancer drug developer with no products for sale and no revenue. Its lead drug, tovecimig (CTX-009), is in a Phase 2/3 trial (COMPANION-002) in biliary tract cancer and a Phase 2 trial in colorectal cancer. Its second candidate, CTX-471, is earlier stage. The company has no signed licensing, partnership or milestone contracts that pay it money, and no approved product. What the business earns: owner earnings (operating cash flow, less working-capital swings, less stock compensation, less capital spending) have been negative every year, between about -$31 million and -$60 million, or roughly -$0.24 to -$0.48 per share in the last five years (-$0.36 per share in 2025, versus -$0.44 in 2024, a smaller loss). Stock compensation is a real cost and is deducted; capital spending is negligible. Because nothing recurring is earned, we cannot credit any earning power: a drug approval, a partnership or a launch has not happened yet, so none of that value is included in any case. That leaves the balance sheet as the only evidenced value. The balance sheet: $209 million of cash and marketable securities at December 31, 2025 (the company funded itself entirely by selling shares, including about $130 million raised in 2025), against operating cash burn of about $49 million in 2025 and $32 million in the first half of 2026. Management says this funds operations into 2028 and that beyond that it depends on raising new money. The auditors' accounting note does not conclude there is substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue over the next twelve months. There is no meaningful debt. Bear case (about $0.35 per share): the trials do not lead to a marketable drug, and the company keeps spending at roughly the current pace through its stated runway into 2028, leaving only about $70 million, or $0.35 or so per share, of what is left of the cash. Base case (about $0.55 per share): the company spends at recent rates for roughly two years while the Phase 2/3 biliary cancer and colorectal programs read out, and roughly a third of today's cash per share remains, worth about $0.55 after discounting at 6%. No drug revenue is assumed, because none is contracted or approved. Bull case (about $0.90 per share): management preserves more of its cash by limiting spending after the biliary cancer data (final overall-survival analysis followed the April 2026 topline) and most of the balance sheet is retained, still without crediting any drug sales. What could make this wrong: the biggest risk to these values is upside, not downside. If tovecimig is approved and launches, the shares would be worth far more than cash, but we cannot credit that without an approval or a partner paying for it. On the downside, new share sales at low prices would dilute holders (about 17 million options and units are already outstanding), and spending could exceed plan. Historical share counts for older years were derived from reported net loss and loss per share. The margin-of-safety price reflects a very high margin of safety: an unprofitable, single-asset developer whose value is mostly a shrinking pile of cash.