Chaince Digital Holdings Inc. (CD) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Chaince Digital Holdings (formerly Mercurity Fintech) is a small financial advisory and brokerage-related services firm. Its FINRA-registered U.S. broker-dealer, Chaince Securities, LLC, had its membership application approved in March 2025, and the company serves corporate and institutional clients in the United States and the Asia-Pacific region. In December 2025 the board decided to discontinue its Filecoin mining business, which is now being wound down and shown as discontinued operations. The numbers we can stand on are thin. Revenue was about $1.87 million in 2025, up from about $0.49 million in 2024, and about $0.97 million in the first half of 2026 versus about $0.26 million a year earlier. But the business is not yet earning money: net loss was about $5.1 million in 2025 and about $2.5 million in the first half of 2026, and the accumulated deficit is roughly $686 million, mostly from the earlier crypto-era business. Operating cash flow was negative $2.4 million in 2025 (including discontinued mining). We treat stock compensation as a real cost: it was about $1.4 million in 2025, so owner earnings per share were about negative $0.05 in 2025 and negative $0.04 in 2024. The two years available are the window used, because the earlier business was fundamentally different and older data is not on file. All three cases are valued at $0 per share. Bear: the advisory business does not reach break-even and continues to consume cash. Base: nothing we can name and evidence today, such as a signed multi-year contract, a backlog or a track record of profit, supports assuming this firm will earn owner earnings above zero, so operations are credited with no value. Bull: the same, because the revenue increase since 2024 is real but comes from a very small base, is not contracted, and has not produced a profit. Growth in revenue is therefore not credited in any case. The company holds about $33.8 million in cash at the end of 2025, raised largely through share issuance (about $17.8 million in 2025), on roughly 79 million shares outstanding at March 2026. We do not add that cash to the value, because this analysis values the operating earning power of the business, and cash that is being spent at a loss can shrink. Readers who see the cash as the main asset should know it is being used up by ongoing losses and share-based pay, and that new share sales dilute existing holders. The company disclosed that recurring losses and negative operating cash flow initially raised substantial doubt about its ability to continue for a year, but management concluded that its cash resolves the doubt for at least twelve months from issuance. It still has a small subsidiary in mainland China (Chaince Shenzhen Consulting), which the company describes as limited in scope, and Hong Kong-based advisory capability. What would make this wrong: if the advisory and brokerage revenue keeps compounding and turns profitable after stock compensation, the shares would be worth more than zero. We would need to see sustained positive owner earnings, not just higher revenue, before assigning value. Some data could not be reconciled: the 2025 cash flow statement does not separately report equipment purchases, which we treated as immaterial.