$0.00
$0.78
bear $0.00
base $0.56
bull $0.78
margin of safety $0.15
market price* $0.56
Business condition attached to the margin of safety
Both remaining sales of SEED Therapeutics shares (about $13.2 million and $14.9 million) actually close and are paid in cash.
BeyondSpring is a clinical-stage cancer drug developer with no products for sale and no revenue in 2025 or 2024. Its lead drug, plinabulin, showed a survival benefit in a Phase 3 lung cancer study (DUBLIN-3), and a confirmatory global Phase 3 study is planned. It also holds a shrinking stake in SEED Therapeutics, a drug-discovery company it founded. The company is incorporated in the Cayman Islands and runs from New Jersey, with offices and a subsidiary that runs clinical work in China. Earning power. The business has never produced positive owner earnings. After adding back share-based pay and removing working-capital swings, it consumed about $20.6 million in 2023 ($0.53 per share), $15.9 million in 2024 ($0.40 per share) and $20.4 million in 2025 ($0.51 per share). Those years include SEED, which was later moved out of the company's continuing operations; continuing operations alone lost about $8.9 million from operations in 2025. There is no earnings stream we can point to, so the drug pipeline itself is credited with no value in any case. A successful approval, a new partner payment or a SEED discovery is not something the filings secure today. What is worth something. The company has signed agreements to sell part of its SEED shares at $4.25 each. The first sale brought in about $7.35 million in February 2025. The second, about $13.19 million, is expected to close in 2026. The third, about $14.88 million, is scheduled no later than December 15, 2026. Either side can terminate if a closing has not happened by its date. Cash was $7.8 million at the end of 2025 and $2.7 million on June 30, 2026, after operating cash outflows of $7.0 million in the first half of 2026. After all three sales the company would still hold about 3.7 million SEED shares, which we value at the same $4.25 that unrelated investors paid in 2025. Bear case ($0.00 per share). The third sale does not close and the remaining SEED shares find no buyer. The cash on hand and the second payment then roughly equal what the company spends before it must find new funding, leaving nothing for shareholders. We show zero rather than a negative figure because the shortfall would fall on new funding, not on a debt we can identify. Base case ($0.56 per share). Both remaining sales close, about $28 million in total. The company spends about $8.9 million a year, its 2025 operating loss, from mid-2026 through the end of 2028, then sells its remaining SEED shares at $4.25. Cash on hand plus proceeds, less spending, comes to roughly $23 million, or about $0.56 on the 41.1 million shares outstanding at the end of 2025. Part of the SEED holding sits in a partly owned subsidiary, so not every dollar of proceeds may reach BeyondSpring shareholders. Bull case ($0.78 per share). The same sales close, and the remaining SEED shares are sold a year earlier, at the end of 2027. This shortens the period of spending and yields roughly $32 million, or about $0.78 per share. We did not credit plinabulin approval, Hengrui milestones (up to about $157 million under the 2021 agreement, which depend on regulatory and sales results not yet achieved) or growth at SEED, since none is secured. What could make this wrong. Higher research spending on the confirmatory Phase 3 would shrink the base case quickly, and new share sales to fund it would dilute holders. The SEED price of $4.25 comes from private transactions, not an open market. Lower spending, or a partner for plinabulin outside Greater China, would raise the value. The most recent quarterly filing was not readable in detail, so the split of 2026 spending between the company and SEED could not be confirmed. The 2025 annual report states that current resources should cover the next 12 months, but the company also says it will need additional funding.