Bogota Financial Corp. (BSBK) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Bogota Financial is the holding company for Bogota Savings Bank, a community savings bank in northern New Jersey. Its lending area is centered on northern New Jersey, including Bergen County, and extends to Monmouth and Ocean Counties. It earns money on the gap between what it charges on loans and securities and what it pays on deposits and borrowings. It had 12,925,572 shares outstanding at December 31, 2025. What the earnings really look like. We measure earnings as cash from operations, less the swing in working capital, less stock-based compensation (a real cost we do not add back), less the part of capital spending needed just to stay in business. On that basis the bank earned about $0.27 per share in 2020, $0.32 in 2021 and $0.64 in 2022, then fell to roughly break-even in 2023 (-$0.01) and a loss of $0.26 in 2024 despite rising interest income, and recovered to $0.11 in 2025. In 2024 the bank also sold securities at a loss of about $8.9 million and sold premises for a gain of about $9.0 million, which largely offset each other. Interest income rose from $23.3 million in 2020 to $43.0 million in 2025, but profit did not rise in step. Six months into 2026 the bank reported net income of $1.45 million versus $0.96 million a year earlier, and operating cash flow, after the same deductions, of roughly $1.5 million, which is about $0.12 per share for the half. That supports the normal level we use but is not enough to raise it. Anchor. We use $0.19 per share, the median of the six years 2020-2025. Six years is used because it is the full span of filings available and includes weak, peak and loss years. The 2022 figure is high and the 2023-2024 figures are depressed, so the median avoids leaning on either. The 2025 result of $0.11 is below it, while the first half of 2026 annualizes above it. Stock-plan and ESOP expense is only partly deducted (stock awards yes, ESOP allocation no), an accounting judgement that slightly flatters the figures. Growth. The most recent full year (2025) is not a meaningful growth base because 2024 was negative, so the base case starts at the $0.19 level with no growth. We did not credit growth from loan expansion, repricing of older low-yield holdings, or lower funding costs: the bank has not shown a steady, self-funded pattern of growth, and the weak 2023-2024 results show that earnings can move against it. Capital spending is small and mostly maintenance. Cases. All values discount at 6% a year with no net-debt adjustment because the cash flow is after interest. Bear ($0.65 per share): earnings settle around $0.04 per share, about a third of the 2025 level, because the weak results seen in 2023-2024, when cash earnings were negative, recur. Worth about $0.65 per share. Base ($3.15 per share): earnings hold at about $0.19 per share indefinitely, supported by an established deposit franchise (0.82% of Bergen County deposits, 21st of 43 institutions, as of June 2025) in the bank's home market. Worth about $3.15 per share. Bull ($5.00 per share): the earnings level reached in the first half of 2026 and the 2021 result of about $0.32 hold, taken as $0.30 per share, which is worth about $5.00 per share. What could make this wrong. The main risk is that recent profit is low relative to the bank's size, so the value from cash earnings alone is low. If earnings recover toward the 2022 level ($0.64) on a sustained basis, the bull case would be too low. If results weaken as they did in 2023-2024, the bear case applies. Our earnings measure reconciles to net income plus non-cash charges within 1% in 2025. Margin-of-safety price. The margin-of-safety price is about $1.30 per share, where the base case implies a cash yield of about 15%, leaving a margin for the negative years seen in 2023-2024.