BOSTON OMAHA Corp (BOC) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Boston Omaha owns several unrelated businesses: outdoor advertising (billboards), broadband internet service, surety bond insurance and brokerage, and an asset management arm that is being wound down. In 2025 it reported revenue of $114.4 million (2024: $108.3 million) and a net loss of $18.3 million, much of it driven by non-cash investment losses of about $19.9 million. How we measure value. We value the business on the cash it generates for shareholders after paying for the equipment needed to keep operating: operating cash flow, adjusted for working-capital swings, less stock compensation, less the maintenance portion of capital spending. Operating cash flow was $17.9 million in 2025 and $21.2 million in 2024, but capital spending was $27.9 million and $32.2 million, almost all in the broadband business ($25.9 million in 2025; billboards spent $2.0 million). Only a small slice of that spending is attributable to growth, because revenue grew just 5.6% in 2025 and 12.5% in 2024 and the company's own multi-year spending-to-revenue ratio (about 31%) implies only about $1.9 million of 2025 spending was for growth. As a cross-check, depreciation, amortization and accretion was $25.0 million in 2025, close to the $27.9 million spent, which suggests the network and other assets are wearing out at roughly the pace they are being replaced. Result: owner earnings per share have been negative in each of the last five years: about -$0.97 (2021), -$0.78 (2022), -$1.10 (2023), -$0.47 (2024) and -$0.21 (2025). We anchor on the 2023-2025 median of about -$0.47 per share, because 2021-2022 reflect an earlier build-out phase and 2023 was the peak of capital spending. The trend is improving: the 2025 loss narrowed from 2024 as capital spending fell from $51.9 million in 2023 to $32.2 million and then $27.9 million. In the first half of 2026 capital spending was $11.8 million versus $14.2 million a year earlier, while revenue was $43.9 million versus $42.8 million and the net loss was $3.8 million versus $3.0 million. Owner earnings growth in 2025 was not meaningful because the figure is negative; we assume no improvement in year 1 of any case, because a further fall in capital spending is a trend, not something contracted or already paid for. Bear, base and bull. In all three cases we find no named, evidenced source of positive owner earnings, so all three are valued at $0 per share. The bear case is the base case with the same negative cash-generation continuing; the base case assumes capital spending stays near recent levels; the bull case would require capital spending to fall below what operating cash flow covers, which the filings show as a direction but not yet as an outcome. The value is $0 rather than negative because the company's equity is large and it could stop discretionary spending; we are not claiming the company owes more than it is worth. Broadband is the main drag: in 2025 the broadband segment had revenue growth of 5.4% (subscriber growth across a number of markets) but still a segment operating loss of $5.5 million (2024: $7.4 million). Insurance (surety) revenue rose 14.2%, but claim costs rose from 13.3% to 24.5% of revenue and the segment had an operating loss of $1.0 million. What this does not include. Under our method we do not add balance-sheet assets on top of owner earnings. The company held about $28.6 million of unrestricted cash and $20.7 million of short-term investments at December 31, 2025, and total stockholders' equity was $536.1 million, including real estate fund interests and a Sky Harbour stake held by the insurance subsidiary. We do not credit these because we did not establish which of them are freely available to common shareholders, so a $0 value here should be read as 'no value from ongoing cash generation', not as 'the assets are worthless'. Purchases and sales of investments are large and recurring within investing cash flows, and the company had $11.5 million of new borrowings in 2025. What would make this wrong. If billboard and insurance cash flows continue while broadband spending falls to a level operating cash flow covers, owner earnings would turn positive and the shares would be worth something under this method; that is the condition for any margin-of-safety price above zero. Stock-based pay is small ($1.1 million paid in stock in 2025), and no going-concern warning appears; the only going-concern references are in loan-agreement covenant language. Accounting judgements. We removed the change in receivables, payables, prepaid, deferred acquisition costs, unearned premiums and deferred revenue from operating cash flow, but left lease liabilities and right-of-use amortization in, since they offset each other. Where stock compensation was not separately reported (before 2023) we could not deduct it. Non-cash charges such as depreciation and investment losses are already outside operating cash flow. Intangible amortization ($3.6 million in broadband in 2025) is a small share of the total and did not change the conclusion.