BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

BILL runs a software and payments platform that helps small and mid-sized businesses pay bills, send invoices, and manage spend and corporate cards. It earns subscription fees, per-transaction fees on payments and card spending, and interest on customer funds that pass through its bank accounts. That interest was $148.4 million in fiscal 2026 (year ended June 30, 2026), about 9% of $1,653 million revenue. Sales are made mainly in the United States, plus Canada, the United Kingdom and, through its Invoice2go subscribers, Australia and other countries. How we measure earnings. We start from operating cash flow, remove swings from working capital, and subtract stock-based compensation as a real cost. That cost is very large here: $229.8 million in fiscal 2026, down from $313.6 million in fiscal 2023. We also subtract only the capital spending needed to maintain the business; capitalized software and equipment spending tied to revenue growth is treated as growth spending. On this basis earnings per diluted share were about $(1.32) in fiscal 2021, $(1.96) in fiscal 2022 and $(1.23) in fiscal 2023, then $0.27 in fiscal 2024, $0.67 in fiscal 2025 and $0.86 in fiscal 2026. Amortization of acquired intangibles ($60.7 million in fiscal 2026, from past acquisitions) is a non-cash charge and is not deducted. Because those acquired assets wear out, we do not credit growth beyond what the business has already shown. Starting point. Acquisitions changed the business in fiscal 2021 and 2022 (revenue rose from $238 million to $642 million and depreciation and amortization from $4.9 million to $45.6 million), and stock compensation was much heavier before fiscal 2024, so we measure from fiscal 2024 onward. The median of those three years is $0.67 per share, which we use as the starting earning power rather than the latest $0.86. Earnings grew 28% in fiscal 2026; our base case assumes 6% in the first year, which is below that rate, so no reversal of a slowdown is required. Base case (about $8.0 per share). Revenue grew 22% in fiscal 2024 and 13% in each of fiscal 2025 and 2026, funded from the company's own cash flow, which supports modest continued growth. We credit earnings growth of 6% in year one, tapering evenly to 0.6% in year ten, then a fade to zero over the following ten years because we cannot point to evidence of what sustains earnings beyond that point. We leave out margin expansion, new products and market share gains because none is contracted or already delivered. Bear case (about $1.9 per share). Interest earned on customer funds fell $13.4 million in fiscal 2026 as the average yield dropped from 4.50% to 3.85%. If the yield fell another point or so on similar balances, roughly $0.50 per share of earnings would disappear, taking earnings to about $0.20 with no growth, close to the $0.27 earned in fiscal 2024. We then fade that to zero over ten years after year ten. Bull case (about $12.0 per share). Earnings start at the fiscal 2026 level of $0.86 and grow 10% in year one, tapering to 1% by year ten, then fade over ten years. This requires revenue to keep growing near the 13% recently shown while stock compensation keeps falling and the share count keeps shrinking (99.9 million diluted shares in fiscal 2026 versus 106.1 million in fiscal 2024). What could make this wrong. Stock compensation consumes most of operating cash flow, so any swing in it moves value sharply in either direction. Lower interest rates or slower payment volume would reduce earnings. The calculation of the bear case's interest-rate effect is our own estimate from the yield decline the company reports, not a company disclosure. Debt is not subtracted from value because cash flow is already after interest paid. Working capital in our calculation includes operating lease payments.