Bank First Corp (BFC) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Bank First Corporation is the Wisconsin bank holding company behind Bank First, N.A., a community bank that lends to local businesses and households, earns most of its income from the spread between loan and deposit rates, and also owns stakes in insurance and other financial businesses. It has grown by buying smaller Wisconsin banks: Denmark Bancshares and Hometown Bancorp in 2022 and Centre Bancorp of Beloit, which closed on January 1, 2026 (about 168.8 million dollars of consideration, creating a bank of roughly 6.2 billion dollars in assets). How we measure earnings: we start from cash flow from operations, remove the swing in other assets and liabilities, and subtract stock compensation and capital spending in full. Acquisition-related amortization is added back because it is a past cost. On that basis earnings power was 5.33 dollars per diluted share in both 2024 and 2025. 2023 (2.30 dollars) is excluded from the base because taxes on the roughly 38.9 million dollar gain from selling the UFS joint-venture stake ran through operating cash flow while the sale proceeds were investing cash, and capital spending was unusually high. Years before the 2022 acquisitions describe a smaller bank. We anchor on the median of 2022, 2024 and 2025, about 5.30 dollars per share. First-half 2026 results, now including Centre, annualize to a similar figure (about 5.3 dollars on 11.2 million shares), so the extra earnings appear to be offsetting the extra shares rather than raising the level. Base case, about 105 dollars per share: 5.30 dollars of earnings in year 1, matching the 0 percent growth of the latest year (2025 was flat versus 2024), then 3 percent a year through year 6 and 2 percent through year 10, followed by flat earnings. The 3 percent is below the roughly 6 percent per-share growth from 2020 to 2025, which was helped by acquisitions, and is credited only because a community bank that retains most of its profit and has kept nonaccrual loans near 0.16 to 0.19 percent of loans can keep lending steadily from its own capital. Future acquisitions are not credited: they are large, stock-funded steps rather than small repeatable ones, and 2023 showed that a single year can be distorted. A 6 percent discount rate is used. After year 10 the deposit franchise and lending relationships keep earning about the same amount, with no further growth assumed. Bear case, about 48 dollars: earnings settle at about 3.80 dollars per share, the 2020 to 2022 level, because credit losses rise (provisions were 7.1 million dollars in 2020 and 4.7 million dollars in 2023 against 1.25 million dollars in 2025) or the Centre integration underdelivers, and after year 10 they erode 4 percent a year. Bull case, about 128 dollars: earnings grow 3 percent in year 1 and 5 percent a year afterward through year 10, close to the pace of the last five years, then hold flat. What we could not reconcile: bank operating cash flow moves with loans held for sale and other liabilities, so the year-to-year series is noisy; a 2023-style distortion or a reversal of low credit costs would make the base too high. The estimated margin-of-safety price is 58 dollars per share, close to the bear case because bank earnings are leveraged to credit conditions and the anchor rests on only two clean recent years.