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FLANIGANS ENTERPRISES INC (BDL) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Margin of safety$32.00 ComplexityAverage Updated
Analysis Owner's Earnings Geography Growth Strategy Chart Analysis Competitors Circle of Competence
$34.20 $79.21
bear $34.20 base $48.41 bull $79.21 margin of safety $32.00 market price* $47.62
Flanigan's Enterprises has run restaurants and package liquor stores in South Florida since 1959. At the end of fiscal 2025 it operated 32 units (Flanigan's Seafood Bar and Grill restaurants, Big Daddy's Liquors stores and combinations) and franchised five more. Ten of its eleven partnership-owned restaurants are consolidated into its results, which means outside limited partners own roughly a third of the cash those restaurants generate. Fiscal 2025 revenue was $205.2 million (restaurant food $124.5 million, bar $31.8 million, package stores $47.0 million), up 9.6%. HOW WE MEASURED EARNINGS. We start from operating cash flow, remove the swings in working capital (a $2.5 million drag in fiscal 2025, a $4.0 million boost in fiscal 2021), and subtract the capital spending needed to keep the units going. Growth spending is estimated from the company's own history (about 5.3% of each extra dollar of revenue) and the rest of capital spending is treated as upkeep. Earnings per share for the whole consolidated business, before the partners' share, came to $2.13, $1.82, $1.93, $0.12, $0.65, -$4.53, $2.74 and $4.14 for fiscal 2018 through 2025. Fiscal 2021 to 2023 are not a fair picture: the company was buying properties and building new units (capital spending of $11.1 million, $9.1 million and $18.7 million), and a simple upkeep formula cannot tell that apart from maintenance. Fiscal 2020 was the pandemic year and fiscal 2024 was the year a new Hollywood restaurant opened and costs ran ahead of prices. We therefore rest on fiscal 2025, the first full year after the menu price increases of August to December 2024. Cash the business produced before paying its lenders was $8.59 million in fiscal 2025 ($7.70 million after interest plus $0.90 million of interest paid), against $6.06 million in fiscal 2024, a rise of 42%. The first nine months of fiscal 2026 point the same way: revenue $165.3 million (up 6.5%), net income including the partners' share $8.8 million versus $6.5 million, and operating cash flow $12.8 million versus $7.2 million. That supports fiscal 2025 being a real new level, but we do not lift our base case for it. Fiscal 2025 grew 42% on this measure; our base case assumes 0% growth in year one. BASE CASE ($48.41 per share). Cash before lenders stays at $8.59 million a year with no growth. Why it can last: a 65-year record, mostly owned real estate, and operating cash flow above $6.6 million in every one of the eight years we examined, including the pandemic year. Discounted at 6%, the business is worth $143.2 million. Limited partners take about $2.97 million a year (their fiscal 2025 distributions), worth $49.5 million, and we add $8.9 million for the cost of new sites already bought and being developed, leaving $102.6 million for the company's shareholders before debt. The company owes $31.4 million (June 2026) and holds $28.8 million of cash; we count $10 million of cash as needed to run the stores (this includes about $3.2 million held for franchisees) and net the rest against debt, so net debt is $12.6 million. Difference: $90.0 million, or $48.41 per share. BEAR CASE ($34.20). Cash before lenders falls back to fiscal 2024's $6.06 million and stays there, because costs keep rising (management expects operating costs to keep increasing through fiscal 2026) and prices do not keep pace. Partners take $1.94 million (their fiscal 2024 share) and the new sites are worth 85% of cost. Business $101.0 million, less partners $32.4 million, plus sites $7.6 million gives $76.1 million; less $12.6 million net debt gives $63.6 million. Cash interest is about $1.0 million a year, so even this case covers its interest several times over. BULL CASE ($79.21). Cash before lenders reaches about $11.0 million (fiscal 2025 plus roughly the $2.3 million rise in nine-month profit this year) and grows 2% a year for ten years, about half the 4% to 5% menu price increases the company has actually taken, then holds. Partners take about $3.3 million, growing the same way. Business $214.4 million, less partners $63.5 million, plus sites $8.9 million gives $159.8 million; less $12.6 million net debt gives $147.2 million. WHAT WE CREDITED AND LEFT OUT. We credited only the current level of cash generation, the 2% price-driven growth in the bull case, and the money already spent on new sites (the Cutler Bay property bought for $2.2 million in fiscal 2025 plus about $6.7 million of fiscal 2026 spending above normal upkeep, which we take to be new-site spending). We left out any profit from units not yet open, further unit growth (the company went from 25 units in 2016 to 32 in 2025, roughly 0.8 a year), further price increases in the base case, and the strong package-store sales gains (same-store sales up 16% in fiscal 2025), because none is secured. DEBT. Debt has risen from $20.6 million at September 2025 to $31.4 million at June 2026 to fund site purchases; cash rose to $28.8 million. Several loans float: the Calusa Center mortgage ($5.7 million) was refinanced after year-end at the Term SOFR rate plus 2.25%, with the full balance due November 30, 2030. The company was in compliance with its lender's covenants at September 2025. HOW WE TESTED IT. Was fiscal 2025 a one-off? Costs fell to 95.7% of revenue from 96.9%, gross margin on food and bar sales rose to 66.6% from 65.6% on price increases, and nine-month fiscal 2026 profit is higher again, so it does not look like a one-off. Was working capital hiding weak cash? Payables and franchisee balances fell in both fiscal 2024 and 2025; we treat that as timing, and if it were permanent the true level would be nearer our bear case. We could not read the narrative of the latest quarterly report, so fiscal 2026 figures come from its financial data only. WHAT COULD MAKE THIS WRONG. Food, liquor and labor costs outrunning menu prices, a reversal in the strong liquor-store traffic, rising floating-rate debt, new units failing to earn a return on roughly $9 million of site spending, hurricane or other damage concentrated in one region, and the fact that four franchisees are relatives of the Chairman and officers. CHANGE SINCE OUR LAST ESTIMATE. We previously showed $24.39 / $52.62 / $96.16 for bear / base / bull. The low case is higher because we now use fiscal 2024's actual $6.06 million of cash rather than a $4.0 million assumption; the base and high cases are lower because we now deduct the limited partners' third and the higher debt, and credit no growth beyond what is already visible. The margin-of-safety price is about $32, below our low case, given the thin trading, single-region concentration and rising debt.
Fiscal yearOwner's earningsMethodology
2025 $4.14 ▼
OE = CFO - working capital movement - SBC - maintenance capex, all in $ thousands. CFO=10,510; working capital movement (net cash effect of receivables, prepaids, inventories, payables and accruals, due to franchisees, deferred revenue, income-tax balances; operating lease liability change excluded because it offsets right-of-use asset amortization)=(2,464); SBC=0 (none reported); total capex (PP&E 5,830 + CIP 3 + deposits 410 = 6,243); growth capex=964 (capex/revenue ratio 5.347% averaged over FY2018-FY2025 x revenue change of 18,032), so maintenance capex=5,279; OE=7,695; diluted shares=1,858,647 (basic and diluted are identical and unchanged); OE/sh=$4.14. Consolidated basis, before the roughly 30-35% share of limited-partnership earnings that belongs to outside partners. Reconciliation: NI + D&A + other non-cash items + working capital items sums to reported CFO for the year. Source: FY2025 10-K, accession 0001174947-25-001463.
2024 $2.74 ▼
OE = CFO - working capital movement - SBC - maintenance capex, all in $ thousands. CFO=6,630; working capital movement (net cash effect of receivables, prepaids, inventories, payables and accruals, due to franchisees, deferred revenue, income-tax balances; operating lease liability change excluded because it offsets right-of-use asset amortization)=(2,989); SBC=0 (none reported); total capex (PP&E 3,445 + CIP 1,594 + deposits 174 = 5,213); growth capex=686 (capex/revenue ratio 5.347% averaged over FY2018-FY2025 x revenue change of 12,820), so maintenance capex=4,527; OE=5,092; diluted shares=1,858,647 (basic and diluted are identical and unchanged); OE/sh=$2.74. Consolidated basis, before the roughly 30-35% share of limited-partnership earnings that belongs to outside partners. Reconciliation: NI + D&A + other non-cash items + working capital items sums to reported CFO for the year. Source: FY2025 10-K, accession 0001174947-25-001463.
2023 -$4.53 ▼
OE = CFO - working capital movement - SBC - maintenance capex, all in $ thousands. CFO=8,489; working capital movement (net cash effect of receivables, prepaids, inventories, payables and accruals, due to franchisees, deferred revenue, income-tax balances; operating lease liability change excluded because it offsets right-of-use asset amortization)=(898); SBC=0 (none reported); total capex (PP&E 13,177 + CIP 3,531 + deposits 1,962 = 18,670); growth capex=870 (capex/revenue ratio 5.347% averaged over FY2018-FY2025 x revenue change of 16,264), so maintenance capex=17,800; OE=-8,413; diluted shares=1,858,647 (basic and diluted are identical and unchanged); OE/sh=-$4.53. Consolidated basis, before the roughly 30-35% share of limited-partnership earnings that belongs to outside partners. Reconciliation: NI + D&A + other non-cash items + working capital items sums to reported CFO for the year. Source: FY2023 10-K, accession 0001174947-23-001489. FY2023 maintenance capex is inflated because most of the 18.7M spend was property purchases and new-unit construction; the formula cannot see that, so this year is excluded from the anchor.
2022 $0.65 ▼
OE = CFO - working capital movement - SBC - maintenance capex, all in $ thousands. CFO=10,502; working capital movement (net cash effect of receivables, prepaids, inventories, payables and accruals, due to franchisees, deferred revenue, income-tax balances; operating lease liability change excluded because it offsets right-of-use asset amortization)=1,297; SBC=0 (none reported); total capex (PP&E 4,017 + CIP 3,393 + deposits 1,698 = 9,108); growth capex=1,114 (capex/revenue ratio 5.347% averaged over FY2018-FY2025 x revenue change of 20,825), so maintenance capex=7,994; OE=1,211; diluted shares=1,858,647 (basic and diluted are identical and unchanged); OE/sh=$0.65. Consolidated basis, before the roughly 30-35% share of limited-partnership earnings that belongs to outside partners. Reconciliation: NI + D&A + other non-cash items + working capital items sums to reported CFO for the year. Source: FY2023 10-K, accession 0001174947-23-001489. Expansion capex years (FY2021-FY2022) similarly depress this figure and are excluded from the anchor.
2021 $0.12 ▼
OE = CFO - working capital movement - SBC - maintenance capex, all in $ thousands. CFO=14,049; working capital movement (net cash effect of receivables, prepaids, inventories, payables and accruals, due to franchisees, deferred revenue, income-tax balances; operating lease liability change excluded because it offsets right-of-use asset amortization)=4,000; SBC=0 (none reported); total capex (PP&E 6,519 + CIP 4,104 + deposits 509 = 11,132); growth capex=1,301 (capex/revenue ratio 5.347% averaged over FY2018-FY2025 x revenue change of 24,330), so maintenance capex=9,831; OE=218; diluted shares=1,858,647 (basic and diluted are identical and unchanged); OE/sh=$0.12. Consolidated basis, before the roughly 30-35% share of limited-partnership earnings that belongs to outside partners. Reconciliation: NI + D&A + other non-cash items + working capital items sums to reported CFO for the year. Source: FY2021 10-K, accession 0001174947-22-000049. Expansion capex years (FY2021-FY2022) similarly depress this figure and are excluded from the anchor.
2020 $1.93 ▼
OE = CFO - working capital movement - SBC - maintenance capex, all in $ thousands. CFO=8,785; working capital movement (net cash effect of receivables, prepaids, inventories, payables and accruals, due to franchisees, deferred revenue, income-tax balances; operating lease liability change excluded because it offsets right-of-use asset amortization)=2,120; SBC=0 (none reported); total capex (PP&E 2,259 + CIP 379 + deposits 446 = 3,084); growth capex=0 (revenue declined), so maintenance capex=3,084; OE=3,581; diluted shares=1,858,647 (basic and diluted are identical and unchanged); OE/sh=$1.93. Consolidated basis, before the roughly 30-35% share of limited-partnership earnings that belongs to outside partners. Reconciliation: NI + D&A + other non-cash items + working capital items sums to reported CFO for the year. Source: FY2021 10-K, accession 0001174947-22-000049.
2019 $1.82 ▼
OE = CFO - working capital movement - SBC - maintenance capex, all in $ thousands. CFO=9,627; working capital movement (net cash effect of receivables, prepaids, inventories, payables and accruals, due to franchisees, deferred revenue, income-tax balances; operating lease liability change excluded because it offsets right-of-use asset amortization)=642; SBC=0 (none reported); total capex (PP&E 4,284 + CIP 1,058 + deposits 411 = 5,753); growth capex=145 (capex/revenue ratio 5.347% averaged over FY2018-FY2025 x revenue change of 2,705), so maintenance capex=5,608; OE=3,377; diluted shares=1,858,647 (basic and diluted are identical and unchanged); OE/sh=$1.82. Consolidated basis, before the roughly 30-35% share of limited-partnership earnings that belongs to outside partners. Reconciliation: NI + D&A + other non-cash items + working capital items sums to reported CFO for the year. Source: FY2019 10-K, accession 0001174947-19-001315.
2018 $2.13 ▼
OE = CFO - working capital movement - SBC - maintenance capex, all in $ thousands. CFO=9,959; working capital movement (net cash effect of receivables, prepaids, inventories, payables and accruals, due to franchisees, deferred revenue, income-tax balances; operating lease liability change excluded because it offsets right-of-use asset amortization)=1,023; SBC=0 (none reported); total capex (PP&E 2,798 + construction in progress 1,857 + deposits 677 = 5,332); growth capex=357 (capex/revenue ratio 5.347% averaged over FY2018-FY2025 x revenue change of 6,675), so maintenance capex=4,975; OE=3,961; diluted shares=1,858,647 (basic and diluted are identical and unchanged); OE/sh=$2.13. Consolidated basis, before the roughly 30-35% share of limited-partnership earnings that belongs to outside partners. Reconciliation: NI + D&A + other non-cash items + working capital items sums to reported CFO for the year. Source: FY2019 10-K, accession 0001174947-19-001315.

Owner's earnings per share by fiscal year, most recent first. Tap a row to see how that figure was calculated, including the source filing.

Sales geography
South Florida, United States (primarily Miami-Dade County and Broward County, Florida, including Miami, Hollywood and Fort Lauderdale; all sales are in the South region of the United States)
Historical growth strategy

We don't have historical growth strategy information for this company yet.

Chart analysis
The annual report gives no price history, so this is a limited read. The stock trades on the NYSE American with only 1,858,647 shares outstanding and about 149 holders of record, and insiders control a large share. A chartist would first note that a float this small usually means thin volume, wide gaps between bids and offers, and price moves that can jump on small trades, which makes support and resistance lines and moving-average signals less reliable than for a widely held stock. The company pays a small annual dividend that rose from $0.50 to $0.55 per share between fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2025 and has not bought back shares in those years, so there is no buyback bid under the price. Trend, volume and breakout levels need to be read from a live chart, which the filings do not contain.
Competitors

We don't have competitor information for this company yet.

Circle of competence

We don't have circle of competence information for this company yet.