BayCom Corp (BCML) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

BayCom Corp is the holding company for United Business Bank, a community bank that lends to small and mid-sized businesses (mostly commercial real estate and commercial loans) and gathers deposits through branches in California, Washington, Colorado and New Mexico. It earns the spread between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits (about $135 million of interest income in 2025) plus roughly $6 million of fee income. How we measured earnings. We start from cash generated by operations, remove timing swings in accrued interest, subtract stock compensation (a real cost, about $0.65 million in 2025) and subtract only the capital spending needed to maintain the branches and systems (about $1.7 million a year). On that basis earnings per diluted share were about $2.35 in 2025, $2.28 in 2024 and $2.20 in 2023. Earlier years were noisier: 2020 ($0.56) and 2021 ($0.94) were depressed by pandemic-era credit provisions of $10.3 million in 2020, and 2022 ($3.09) was inflated by loan-sale cash flows we could not fully reconcile to net income, so we excluded 2022 and 2020 and anchored on the median of 2021 and 2023-2025, roughly $2.24 per share. Bank cash flow is volatile because loan activity runs through operating cash flow, so this is a less precise anchor than for an industrial company. Growth. Last year earnings per share grew about 3%. We credit 1.5% a year for ten years. The evidence: the company has steadily repurchased stock from its own earnings (about 1.33 million shares in 2023, 456 thousand in 2024, 262 thousand in 2025 at about $26), cutting the diluted share count from 13.1 million in 2022 to 11.0 million in 2025, and it retains most of its profit. Buybacks are slowing (about 202 thousand shares remain under the current authorization), which is why we credit less than the recent pace. Loan growth, acquisitions, and rate changes are not credited because nothing secured supports them. After year ten we hold earnings flat rather than growing them: a deposit franchise with long-standing customers keeps producing income, but we can name nothing that makes it grow. Base case: about $42 per share. Earnings of about $2.24 growing 1.5% a year, then held flat. Bear case: about $24 per share. Provisions for loan losses already rose to $4.1 million in 2025 from $1.3 million in 2024, and nonperforming loans were 0.65% of loans at year-end 2025. A credit cycle like 2020-2021, when earnings per share fell below $1, hits for two years at about $0.90, after which earnings settle at about $1.50 with no recovery credited. Bull case: about $55 per share. Earnings start at about $2.60 and grow 3% a year, the buyback-plus-retention pace demonstrated in 2023 to 2025, for ten years and then flat. What would make this wrong. Concentration in commercial real estate loans, heavy losses beyond the bear case, or a deposit run would reduce value below our bear case. The company's leverage is inherent in being a bank; we did not subtract debt, because deposits and interest costs are already reflected in cash flow. The margin-of-safety price of $21 sits just below the bear value to allow for credit losses, which are the main way permanent capital is lost in a bank.