$1.90
$8.50
bear $1.90
base $6.00
bull $8.50
margin of safety $3.00
market price* $9.08
Concrete Pumping Holdings provides concrete pumping to general contractors and concrete finishers in commercial, infrastructure and residential construction. Its Brundage-Bone unit operates about 95 branches in approximately 23 U.S. states, Camfaud operates about 35 branches in the United Kingdom, and Eco-Pan provides industrial cleanup and containment services. Fiscal year ends October 31. Fiscal 2025 revenue was $392.9 million: U.S. Concrete Pumping $260.5 million, U.S. Concrete Waste Management Services $75.4 million, and U.K. Operations $57.0 million. How we measure earnings. We start from operating cash flow, remove swings in working capital, subtract stock compensation as a real cost, and subtract the part of equipment spending needed to keep the fleet running. In fiscal 2025 that left $17.5 million, or $0.33 per share (cash flow $64.3 million, working capital swing a $7.3 million drag that we add back, stock compensation $2.0 million, equipment purchases $46.8 million, and $5.3 million of non-cash lease expense that we treat as a real cost because the matching lease payments sit inside the working-capital line). Over the last six fiscal years the result per share was $0.45 (2020), $0.17 (2021), $(0.11) (2022), $0.75 (2023), $0.61 (2024) and $0.33 (2025). Fiscal 2022 was negative because the company spent $101.9 million on equipment, and our method only treats a slice of that as growth spending. The company also records $11.8 million a year (fiscal 2025) of amortization on acquired customer relationships. That charge is non-cash, so we leave it out of earnings; instead we let each case erode in the later years to reflect those wasting assets. Starting level. We use fiscal 2023 to 2025, the years after the big fleet build of 2022. The middle value is $0.61 per share. But early in fiscal 2025 the company replaced $375 million of 6.0% notes with $425 million of 7.5% notes due February 2032. Compared with fiscal 2024, that adds roughly $8 million of annual cash interest, about $0.15 per share, and we do not want to credit earnings that the new debt has already removed. Our starting level is therefore $0.45 per share. Fiscal 2025 earnings fell 45% from fiscal 2024 ($0.33 versus $0.61), and the base case does not assume any growth from the starting level. The nine months to July 2026 show revenue up 10.6% ($314.1 million versus $284.1 million) and operating cash flow up 7.6% ($53.6 million versus $49.9 million), but higher equipment spending kept owner earnings per share slightly lower than a year earlier, so we credit no recovery beyond the starting level. Base case: about $6.0 per share. Earnings stay at $0.45 per share for ten years and then erode 3% a year as acquired customer relationships run off. No growth is credited: the demand for pumping depends on construction activity, which is not something the company controls or has contracted, and the one source of steady growth we can see, Eco-Pan (revenue up 6.4% in fiscal 2025 from volume and pricing), is under a fifth of revenue, and we saw only one year of that growth in the filing. Acquisitions, share gains and margin recovery are left out. Bear case: about $1.9 per share. U.S. concrete pumping revenue fell 10.5% in fiscal 2025 and the segment lost $1.9 million; U.K. revenue fell 10.9%. The bear case assumes owner earnings of $0.20 per share for six years, below fiscal 2025's $0.33, because volumes stay at the fiscal 2025 low, the new notes cost a full year of interest, and equipment spending keeps running above last year's pace (nine-month equipment purchases of $40.0 million versus $34.2 million). It then assumes $0.12 per share after the $425 million notes come due in February 2032 and are refinanced at an assumed rate one percentage point higher, followed by a 5% annual decline. The company held $44.4 million of cash at October 31, 2025, but the fixed 7.5% interest of about $32 million a year leaves little cushion if volumes stay weak. Bull case: about $8.5 per share. Owner earnings return to $0.60 per share, the fiscal 2023 level after the higher interest cost, held for ten years and then eroding 2% a year. This requires construction volumes to recover to levels the company has already reached, and we treat it as the upper end of what the record supports. Accounting points. Equipment purchases are counted gross; the $9.5 million the company received selling used equipment in fiscal 2025 is not netted, which is conservative. We do not subtract debt from the value, because interest is already deducted in the cash flow, and leverage is reflected in the bear case. In fiscal 2025 the company also paid a $53.1 million dividend and repurchased $14.2 million of its stock; these do not change the business value but reduce cash on hand. What would make this estimate wrong: a lasting fall in U.S. construction volumes would lower all three cases; a recovery with pricing power would raise them.