Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Bridger Aerospace flies aerial firefighting and surveillance missions for government agencies. Its centerpiece is a fleet of CL-415 Super Scooper amphibious water-bombers (six operating in North America, plus two Spanish Scoopers bought in December 2025), supported by Daher Kodiak, Pilatus PC-12, King Air and Twin Commander aircraft for surveillance and air attack, and a maintenance business. 2025 revenue was $122.8 million: fire suppression $79.8 million, aerial surveillance $17.4 million, maintenance and repair $21.5 million (much of it one-off return-to-service work on the Spanish aircraft) and other $4.1 million. About 89% of sales were in the United States and 11% in Spain. One customer, the U.S. federal wildfire agencies, accounted for 66% of 2025 revenue. WHAT THE BUSINESS EARNS. We measure the cash the business produces after stock compensation and after only the capital spending needed to keep the fleet flying, then add back interest to see what is available to pay lenders. Growth spending was separated out: in 2025 that was $53.7 million for the two Spanish Scoopers and a second King Air. On that basis the cash available to lenders was about $19.4 million in 2024 and $14.3 million in 2025 (roughly $0.38 and $0.26 per share). 2023 was excluded because of a $47.8 million one-time stock award triggered by the January 2023 public listing. We anchored on the average of 2024 and 2025, about $17.8 million a year. Year-one growth: the 2025 figure fell 31% from 2024, but that drop comes entirely from capital spending swinging from about $0 to $27 million of aircraft improvements; before that spending the figure more than doubled. We assume no growth in any case for the base, because nothing in the filings locks in growth: the main U.S. Forest Service water-scooper contract, awarded in 2021 and extended, runs only through September 30, 2026, and the government can end it for convenience. The first half of 2026 was also weaker: revenue $39.0 million versus $46.4 million, operating cash flow negative $36.8 million versus negative $16.2 million, and cash fell from $31.4 million to $7.2 million while borrowings rose about $22 million. Second-quarter revenue was flat, so we did not lower the earnings level, but we did not credit growth. WHAT COMES BEFORE SHAREHOLDERS. In October 2025 the company replaced its old bonds with a $210 million term loan (plus a $100 million delayed-draw facility, $10.3 million drawn at year end, more since) at roughly SOFR plus 6%, due October 2030, secured on substantially all assets. Total borrowings were $245.0 million at June 30, 2026. Because this costs about 10% versus our 6% yardstick, we count it at about $279 million. Covenants require leverage no higher than 7.0x through 2026, tightening to 6.0x in 2027 and 5.5x after, and a minimum operating cash flow of $30 million. Ahead of the common shares also sits $407.3 million (December 2025) of Series A preferred stock, which grows about 7% a year, reached about $421 million by mid-2026, and is mandatorily redeemable on April 25, 2032; it converts to common only at $11.00 per share, which no case we built reaches, so we count it as a claim, about $448 million in present value. Finally, the company must pay up to $15 million to the seller of two further Spanish Scoopers it has not purchased. Together these claims are about $742 million. THE THREE CASES (per share, about 56.4 million diluted shares). Bear, -$12.53: the Forest Service scooper work is re-awarded at 2024 rate levels, removing the $13.1 million of 2025 fire-suppression revenue increase that came from higher rates, so business cash flow falls to about $5 million a year for ten years. The business is worth about $35 million against $742 million of claims. Base, -$10.18: the contract continues at 2025 economics; cash flow stays at about $17.8 million for ten years, then fades to zero over the next ten as the aging, no-longer-manufactured CL-415 airframes reach the end of their lives. The business is worth about $167 million against $742 million owed. Bull, -$8.51: the two Spanish Scoopers already owned begin earning at the per-aircraft revenue the existing scoopers earn (about $13 million each), adding roughly $10 million a year; the business is worth about $262 million against the same claims. Not credited in any case: additional aircraft purchases, new contracts or markets, further rate increases, and the possible consolidation of federal wildfire programs, since none is signed or demonstrated. WHAT THIS MEANS. In all three cases the company appears to owe more than the business is worth, by roughly $480 million in the bull case, $575 million in the base case and $710 million in the bear case. We tested this directly: even if 2025's cash generation before any aircraft spending ($41.5 million) continued forever, it would be worth about $690 million at 6%, still short of the $742 million owed. For the common shares to be worth something, the business would need to earn several times what it has, or the preferred holders and lenders would have to accept less. Refinancing risk is real: the term loan matures in 2030, two years before the preferred is due, and the covenants are tight against a business with $17.8 million of anchor cash flow and about $24 million of annual interest. Items we could not fully reconcile: no third-quarter 2026 results or announcement of a new Forest Service contract were available to us, and the second half of the year (peak fire season) will show whether the first-half weakness reverses.