ArriVent BioPharma, Inc. (AVBP) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

ArriVent BioPharma is a clinical-stage cancer drug developer based in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania. It has no approved product and has never had product revenue. Its lead drug, firmonertinib, was licensed in 2021 from Shanghai Allist Pharmaceuticals, which already sells it in China for common EGFR-mutant lung cancer. ArriVent holds the rights everywhere outside China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan and is running two pivotal Phase 3 trials in first-line non-small cell lung cancer with less common EGFR mutations: FURVENT (exon 20 insertions, 398 patients enrolled, compared against chemotherapy) and ALPACCA (PACC mutations, compared against osimertinib or afatinib). The drug has FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation. Behind it sit two early antibody-drug conjugate programs licensed from Chinese partners: ARR-217 from Lepu Biopharma and a program with Jiangsu Alphamab. If firmonertinib is approved, ArriVent owes Allist up to $105 million in clinical and regulatory milestones, up to $655 million in sales milestones, and royalties from high single digits to the low-to-mid teens. What the business earns today: owner earnings, meaning operating cash flow with stock compensation treated as a real cost and with working-capital timing removed, were -$36.9 million in 2022, -$69.3 million in 2023, -$80.5 million in 2024 and -$169.3 million in 2025. The 2025 figure includes a one-time $40 million upfront payment to Lepu for ARR-217 and a $5 million milestone to Allist. The company has no capital spending to speak of. The underlying quarterly spending has risen steadily: about $31 million in Q2 2025, about $35 million a quarter in the second half of 2025, $43 million in Q1 2026 and $50 million in Q2 2026. The first half of 2026 consumed $94 million on this basis. Per-share figures for 2022 and 2023 look very large only because they were calculated before the January 2024 IPO, when the preferred stock had not yet converted into common shares. How we value it: every case values only what exists and can be evidenced today. There is no approved product, no product revenue and no signed commercial contract in ArriVent's territory, so none of the cases gives firmonertinib's possible future sales any value. Approval has not happened. The drug's approval in China, its Breakthrough status and the fully enrolled FURVENT trial are real, but none of them is revenue ArriVent has secured. What shareholders own today is $373.1 million of cash and short-term investments (June 30, 2026) and a research operation that spends that cash. The company has no borrowings. Its only long-term contractual obligation is a small office lease, and its trial contracts can be cancelled on notice. Management says the cash will fund operations into 2028. Each case therefore asks how much of the cash will be left when that runway ends, discounted at 6% a year. We use about 50.67 million shares: 49.31 million common shares at August 10, 2026 plus 1.36 million pre-funded warrants with a nominal exercise price. The 7.3 million employee options, with an average exercise price of $18.97, are above every case value and are left out. Base case, $1.33 per share: spending stays at the Q2 2026 rate of about $100 million per half-year through the end of 2027 while FURVENT reaches its readout and ALPACCA continues. That uses about $299 million and leaves about $74 million, worth about $67.5 million today. The operating business is valued at nothing beyond the cash, the company owes no debt, and shareholders are left with about $1.33 a share. For the first year, spending is held flat at the latest quarter's rate. That is a smaller increase than the doubling seen in 2025, because the 2025 jump included the one-time $40 million Lepu payment and FURVENT has finished enrolling. Bull case, $1.63 per share: the increase in Q2 2026 does not continue, and spending holds at the first-half 2026 average of about $94 million per half-year. That leaves about $90 million at the end of 2027, worth about $82.7 million today, or about $1.63 a share, again with no debt. Bear case, $0.00 per share: spending keeps rising at roughly the pace seen from Q1 to Q2 2026, about 12% per half-year, as ALPACCA enrolls and the antibody-drug conjugate programs move forward. Under that path the whole $373 million is gone by late 2027. Continuing after that would require new share sales or a partnership, and today's shareholders would have no remaining claim on the current cash. The company has a history of paying for new licenses: $40 million to Allist in 2021, the Alphamab deal in 2024 and $40 million to Lepu in 2025. Another deal like these would speed up the burn. With no debt, the bear case goes to zero but not below it. What would make this wrong: the gap between these figures and the cash on hand is money we expect the company to spend on trials whose results we do not count. A positive FURVENT readout followed by FDA approval would create an asset these cases treat as worth nothing. We cannot credit it until the drug is approved and selling. The readout date has also slipped. In July 2025 the company projected FURVENT topline data for early 2026. The March 2026 annual report said mid-2026, and the August 2026 quarterly update said the second half of 2026. As of this analysis we found no reported result. A clearly negative readout, on the other hand, could lead management to cut spending sharply and keep more cash than the base case assumes.