Amprius Technologies, Inc. (AMPX) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Amprius Technologies designs high-energy-density lithium-ion batteries built around a silicon anode, sold mainly for drones, aviation and other weight-sensitive uses. Since the January 2024 commercial launch of its SiCore cells, most of what it sells is made by outside contract manufacturers in China and South Korea (it says it has access to more than 2 GWh of annual capacity), while its higher-end SiMaxx cells are still built at its Fremont, California plant. Revenue rose from $9.1 million in 2023 to $24.2 million in 2024 and $73.0 million in 2025, and was $62.6 million in just the first half of 2026. About 72% of 2025 revenue was delivered to Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and one customer alone was $27.1 million, or 37%. Growth has not yet produced profit. In 2025 the cost of the batteries sold was $64.7 million against $73.0 million of revenue, a gross margin of roughly 11%, and the company still lost $44.0 million, $22.5 million of which was a non-cash write-down, mostly of the planned Brighton, Colorado factory lease. After adding back non-cash charges but deducting stock compensation ($7.4 million) and the cash absorbed by a jump in customer receivables (from $5.6 million to $23.7 million), the business consumed about $15.0 million of owner earnings in 2025, or about $0.12 per share. The prior years were worse: about $35.6 million in 2024. There is no year in the record in which the business generated positive owner earnings. We measure the current business from 2025, the first full year at scale under the outsourced model; 2024 was the launch year and 2023 was distorted by the Colorado factory build. The company has no borrowings. Its value to shareholders therefore rests on the cash it holds, $74.5 million at June 30, 2026 (about $0.52 per share on roughly 143.5 million diluted shares), less the cash it will burn before the business stops losing money. That cash has been kept up by selling new shares: diluted shares grew from 101.9 million in 2024 to 124.6 million in 2025 and 143.5 million in mid-2026. Any burn beyond what the cases assume would be funded by more dilution. What we credit and what we leave out. Only the signed termination of the Brighton lease is treated as secured improvement: on January 30, 2026 the company paid a one-time $20.0 million to exit a lease that carried $33.2 million of liabilities, and the payment is included in the cash figure above. Revenue growth is not credited. It comes from new customers and a larger volume of orders, which is expansion the business has not repeated over many years or funded from its own cash, and there is no disclosed order backlog to lock it in. Improved gross margin, new products and larger scale are likewise left out, so no case assumes profits. Bear case: $0.18 per share. The largest customer ($27.1 million of 2025 revenue) is lost and not replaced, which removes roughly $3 million of gross profit, so losses run about $18 million a year for three years before management winds the business down. The business is worth about negative $48 million in present value, it owes nothing, and the $74.5 million of cash leaves about $26 million, or $0.18 per share. Base case: $0.28 per share. Losses of about $10 million a year for four years, better than 2025's $15 million because the Brighton lease is gone and the first half of 2026 lost far less than the first half of 2025 (net loss of $8.2 million against $15.7 million, on revenue that was 2.4 times higher). The trailing year improved by about 57% (from a $35.6 million to a $15.0 million loss); the base case assumes a smaller improvement, so it does not lean on that pace continuing. After year four nothing named and evidenced supports either profits or further losses, so the case counts neither. The business is worth about negative $35 million, it owes nothing, and cash of $74.5 million leaves about $40 million, or $0.28 per share. Bull case: $0.44 per share. The company's own results keep narrowing losses at the pace seen so far, to about $8 million in the first year and $4 million in the second, then break-even. No profit is credited because none has yet been demonstrated. The business is worth about negative $11 million, it owes nothing, and cash leaves about $63 million, or $0.44 per share. Margin-of-safety price: $0.12 per share. Shares are worth little more than the cash they hold, that cash is shrinking, and the range of outcomes is wide, so the margin-of-safety price sits at a large discount to the bear case. What we tested. The receivables build is the main risk to cash: they rose again by about $16.8 million in the first half of 2026, cash fell by $16.0 million in that half despite about $27 million raised, and a slow-paying or lost large customer would hit both revenue and cash. Product cost consuming about 89 cents of every revenue dollar in 2025 also means faster sales alone do not fix the losses. The materials are sourced primarily from China and the contract manufacturers are in China and South Korea, so tariffs or export limits are a risk to supply and margin. We could not reconcile the first-half 2026 lease cash outflow of $20.9 million against the $20.0 million termination payment, or split the first-half 2026 net loss between the one-time lease termination effect and ongoing operations, from the data available; we therefore did not raise the earnings level on those figures.