$15.30
$30.70
bear $15.30
base $24.80
bull $30.70
margin of safety $15.00
market price* $31.28
American Homes 4 Rent owns and leases roughly 60,000 single-family rental homes across the Sun Belt and Midwest, and since 2017 has built new rental homes through its own development program (over 14,000 built to date; 1,879 delivered to the operating portfolio in 2025). Values below are per share and treat operating-partnership units as shares, because the cash flow belongs to both. HOW WE MEASURED EARNINGS. We start with cash from operations after interest, remove working-capital swings and stock compensation, deduct the routine upkeep of existing homes (renovations plus recurring capital spending, $159 million in 2025) and deduct preferred dividends ($13.9 million a year). Per share this gives $0.84 (2017), $0.76, $0.87, $0.81, $0.89, $0.90 (2022), $1.22 (2023), $1.36 (2024) and $1.49 (2025). We treat the roughly $810 million a year spent building new homes and buying land as growth spending, not upkeep, and we give no credit for the earnings that spending might create. However, about $55 million a year of interest on the debt behind that pipeline is capitalized into the build cost rather than run through cash from operations, so we deduct it ($0.13 per share) to avoid flattering the result. Starting level: the median of 2023 to 2025, $1.36, less $0.13 = $1.23 per share. Earlier years reflect the heavy one-time renovation of purchased homes, larger preferred dividends and a smaller business, so they are not used. Gains on home sales are excluded from cash from operations and we do not count them. GROWTH CREDITED. 2025 earnings grew about 9.4% over 2024, but the first half of 2026 cash from operations was flat ($495.7 million vs $495.3 million), so the base case starts at 3%, below the last reported year. What we credit: same-home rents and margins. Same-home core revenue rose 4.0% in 2025 ($1,408 million vs $1,354 million) and same-home core net operating income rose 4.7%; we credit 3% a year for three years, 2.5% for two, then 2% through year ten, below that record. After year ten the homes keep earning at the same level, since upkeep is already deducted; we assume no growth beyond that. Not credited: new development deliveries (each home costs $300,000 to $500,000 and needs new capital), which is roughly offset by about 2,156 homes identified for sale in 2025; also excluded are rent-growth acceleration and any market recovery. BASE CASE, $24.8: the story above. BEAR CASE, $15.3: rent growth slows toward the 1.7% blended rent change seen in Atlanta while property operating expenses, which rose 6.1% in 2025, keep climbing, so earnings slip about 1.5% a year indefinitely; refinancing of the $500 million due 2028, $760 million due 2029 and $650 million due 2030 (of $5.16 billion total debt) at higher rates trims the starting level to about $1.15 after the capitalized-interest adjustment. State and local laws limiting corporate ownership of single-family homes are a disclosed risk, but no specific measure is priced. BULL CASE, $30.7: the 2025 level ($1.49, less $0.13) is the true run rate and same-home performance continues at about 5% a year for three years, 4% for two, then 3% through year ten, with no growth thereafter. WHAT COULD MAKE THIS WRONG. Depreciation ($504 million) is far above the upkeep we deduct ($159 million); if aging homes need much more capital spending, values fall. 57.9% of homes sit in ten markets, so a local downturn matters. Leverage ($5.16 billion of debt) is reflected only in the bear case, with no separate deduction for debt. Cash from operations for 2026 quarters after the first half was not reviewed; the latest quarterly filing on record is June 30, 2026.