AMC Robotics Corp (AMCI) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

AMC Robotics (formerly the blank-check company AlphaVest Acquisition Corp., merged December 9, 2025) sells YI-brand smart security cameras, driving recorders and action cameras, mostly through Amazon in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and parts of Europe. It also earns a revenue share from a related company, Kami Vision, for cloud video services. It is controlled by its founder Sean Da (about 83% of the stock), buys products from suppliers in Asia, and says AI glasses, drones and robots are only in early development. The operating record is short and shrinking. Revenue fell from $10.2 million in 2024 to $6.0 million in 2025 (down 41%) and to $2.1 million in the first half of 2026 versus $3.2 million a year earlier (down 34%). Related-party income fell from $1.8 million to $1.2 million. After stripping out working-capital swings and a $25.5 million non-cash loss on warrants, owner earnings were about negative $0.7 million in 2024 and positive $0.9 million in 2025, on 18 million shares (about negative $0.04 and positive $0.05 per share). Operating results in the first half of 2026 were roughly break-even. There is no stock-based pay and no reported capital spending. Because there are only two years of operating history and revenue is falling, we value the business off the two-year median (about $0.15 million a year) and let it fade rather than assuming any growth. What the shares are worth is therefore mostly cash. The company held $4.5 million of cash at June 30, 2026 against $0.9 million of total liabilities and no meaningful borrowings, about $3.6 million net or roughly $0.16 per share on 22.6 million shares. The warrants issued in the December 2025 PIPE (about 5.6 million shares after a price reset) carry a strike near $4, far above every value here, so we do not count them as dilution. Bear case ($0.03 per share): the Amazon store authorizations that the company relies on run out on October 20, 2026, product revenue keeps falling about a third a year and the related-party revenue share disappears. The business loses roughly $1 million a year for three years before it is wound down or shrunk to nothing, costing about $2.9 million in present value and leaving about $0.7 million of the cash for shareholders. Base case ($0.17 per share): the business earns about the two-year median, roughly $0.15 million a year, and fades as revenue continues to shrink, worth about $0.3 million. Added to $3.6 million of net cash, that is about $3.9 million, or $0.17 per share. Growth is left out entirely: nothing in the filings shows a contract, backlog or repeatable process that would reverse the sales decline. The AI, glasses and robotics plans are not yet commercial products and are worth nothing here. Bull case ($0.32 per share): the business holds its 2025 level of about $0.9 million a year and fades about 20% a year as sales move to the company's own or third-party platforms and the Kami revenue share continues. That is worth about $3.6 million, or $0.16 per share, on top of $0.16 per share of net cash. What could make this wrong: the first half of 2026 included a $1.0 million cash outflow in investing activities that we could not trace from the annual filing, and the company paid or advanced about $0.4 million to its founder in 2025, so cash may not all reach shareholders. We give the $1.0 million no value in any case. Amounts owed by related parties ($1.9 million receivable increase in 2025) also depend on the counterparties paying. A sale of the shares at prices well above the cash per share would rest on the unproven robotics plans. The company reports material weaknesses in its financial controls and has been financed historically by loans from a company owned by its founder. Each case can carry its own obligations: the company has no material borrowings, so no debt is deducted; the losses in the bear case are funded from cash on hand.