AlTi Global, Inc. (ALTI) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

AlTi Global was formed on January 3, 2023 through a business combination. It provides wealth management and outsourced chief investment officer (OCIO) services and runs an alternatives platform that earns management fees, incentive fees (notably from the TIG Arbitrage strategy) and distributions from its stakes in internal and external managers. At December 31, 2025 it managed or advised about $93.1 billion with about 490 professionals in 19 cities in 9 countries. On July 11, 2025 its International Real Estate businesses were placed into administration in England and Wales and are no longer part of the company. A £11.2 million ($15.0 million) settlement of intercompany balances with the administrators, signed March 19, 2026, is payable in installments through November 2027; we count it as an amount the company owes. What the business earns. We measure the cash owners actually keep: operating cash flow with working-capital swings removed, less stock-based pay and the capital spending needed to stay in business. On that basis the continuing business has lost money in every year since the combination: about $45.6 million in 2023, $64.4 million in 2024 and $58.4 million in 2025 (roughly -$0.39, -$0.50 and -$0.40 per share, counting both the listed Class A shares and the Class B units that can be exchanged one-for-one). Revenue rose to $255.0 million in 2025, including $198.4 million of recurring management and advisory fees, but costs rose faster: compensation of $189.8 million and professional fees of $47.8 million (after $35.9 million in 2024 and $45.4 million in 2023). Non-cash items such as the $35.0 million intangible impairment in 2025 and $74.3 million of impairments in 2024, fair-value swings on earn-outs and amortization of acquired client relationships are excluded because no cash left the business. We use only 2023-2025, the years since the combination; earlier years describe a much smaller predecessor business. For valuation we look at the business before its lenders, adding back cash interest ($16.7 million in 2024; almost nothing in 2025 after bank borrowings were repaid in 2024). We also remove two clearly one-off items: about $17.8 million of 2023 costs for the combination and a $15.5 million bad-debt charge tied to the real estate exit in 2025. Because we value the company's $162.5 million of investments separately at their June 30, 2026 carrying value, we take out the distributions those investments pay (about $12-21 million a year). What remains is an operating business that consumed roughly $31 million in 2023, $60 million in 2024 and $64 million in 2025. We take about $60 million a year, the middle of those three years, as the starting point. The 2025 figure was about 6% worse than 2024; we start the base case at $60 million rather than the 2025 level because the first half of 2026 was better than the first half of 2025 on our measure (a loss of about $15.8 million versus $19.4 million). No earnings growth is credited in any case: the business has not yet shown a profitable year at its current size, and the acquisitions of East End Advisors and Envoi (2024) and Kontora (April 30, 2025) have not changed that. What it owes. Ahead of the common shareholders sit about $358 million of preferred stock: Allianz's Series A ($168.9 million) and Constellation's Series C ($176.9 million) at December 31, 2025, rolled forward to mid-2026. Both accrue compounding dividends of 9.75% a year, which have been added to the preferred balances, with half of the Series A dividend paid in new Class A shares. We treat the preferred as debt because conversion into common shares is not assured, and because 9.75% is well above our 6% rate we add the extra cost for five years in the base and bull cases (about $57 million) and ten years in the bear case (about $99 million). The company also owes $12.3 million of borrowings at June 30, 2026, $39.8 million of acquisition earn-outs and the $15.0 million administration settlement, for about $425 million in total before the preferred cost adjustment. Against this it holds $31.2 million of cash and $162.5 million of investments. The $25.7 million tax receivable agreement is payable only if the company realizes tax benefits from taxable profits, which none of our cases assume, so it is left out. The cases. Base: the operating business keeps losing about $60 million a year until its cash and investments are used up (a little over three years) and then only breaks even, because nothing in the filings shows it earning a profit at its current size. The business, including its cash and investments, is worth about $23 million; it owes about $482 million; the difference is about -$460 million, or -$2.98 per share. Bear: losses run at about $70 million a year, near the 2025 rate before the one-off write-off was removed, exhausting the cash and investments in under three years, and the preferred compounds at 9.75% for ten years. The business is worth about $20 million and owes about $524 million, a difference of about -$504 million, or -$3.27 per share. Bull: the improvement seen in the first half of 2026 continues, with losses shrinking to $45 million in the first year and $20 million in the second and then stopping. The business is worth about $133 million and owes about $482 million, a difference of about -$349 million, or -$2.26 per share. In every case the company appears to owe more than it is worth, by roughly $350 million to $500 million, mainly because the preferred stock alone is larger than the company's cash and investments and the operating business has not produced cash to close the gap. If the company raised new money to keep funding losses, today's shareholders would be diluted further. What would make this wrong. A sustained return to positive cash earnings after stock-based pay, for example if professional-fee spending genuinely falls away and the recurring advisory fees cover the cost base, or a conversion of the preferred into common shares that removes the claim ahead of shareholders, would change the picture materially. Until then no margin-of-safety price is set. The company also reported that material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting remained at December 31, 2025.