AirJoule Technologies Corp. (AIRJ) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

What the business is. AirJoule Technologies (formerly Montana Technologies, which listed by merging with the blank-check company Power & Digital Infrastructure Acquisition II on March 14, 2024) is developing machines that pull pure distilled water out of the air and dehumidify air using a metal-organic-framework sorbent in a vacuum pressure-swing cycle. There are two products: the AirJoule Core (up to 250 liters a day, aimed at industrial dehumidification) and the larger AirJoule Prime (about 2,000 liters a day, designed to run on low-grade waste heat at sites such as data centers). Manufacturing sits in a 50/50 joint venture with GE Vernova, AirJoule LLC, which holds exclusive rights to make and supply the products in the Americas, Africa and Australia from a 45,000 square foot plant in Newark, Delaware. Carrier holds an exclusive right to commercialize the technology for HVAC in the Americas for three years after commercialization, and TenX is the exclusive distributor in the Middle East. In 2025 Core units ran as field demonstrations in Texas, Arizona, California and Dubai. The company has never recorded a dollar of revenue. Commercial sales are planned to begin in late 2026, but the filings show no signed orders, volumes or prices. What it earns. We look at the cash the business actually generates, after charging stock-based pay as a cost and ignoring swings in working capital. On that basis the company lost about $11.5 million in 2023, $11.2 million in 2024 and $13.1 million in 2025 (about 22 cents a share in each of the last two years), and $5.7 million in the first half of 2026. That covers only the parent company. On top of it, the company pays cash into the joint venture to fund product development: $10.0 million in 2024, $17.75 million in 2025 and $12.5 million in the first half of 2026. Under the joint-venture agreement it has committed up to a further $77.3 million (about $65 million after the 2026 first-half payments), payable as annual budgets are agreed with GE Vernova. Burn in 2025 rose about 17% over 2024. The first half of 2026 runs at a slightly lower annual rate of about $11.5 million, so our cases assume roughly $12 million a year of parent-company overhead and no revenue. Accounting that distorts the reported numbers. Reported 2024 net income of $215.7 million came almost entirely from a $333.5 million non-cash gain booked when the company contributed its technology to the joint venture. That same valuation is why the balance sheet carries the joint-venture stake at $263.5 million and shows a $45.3 million deferred tax liability. Since then the company has booked large non-cash losses from the venture: $39.3 million in 2025 and $65.7 million in the first half of 2026, mostly in the first quarter. The detail behind the first-quarter 2026 reduction could not be reconciled from the filings available to us. We ignore all of these paper gains and losses, as well as the fair-value swings on share-settled earnout and vesting liabilities. We give the joint-venture stake no value: it has produced no sales, and a carrying value set at contribution is not evidence of cash it will earn. What it owes. The company has no borrowings. At June 30, 2026 it held $41.4 million of cash after raising about $36.5 million of new equity in the first half of 2026, with 73.35 million shares outstanding at August 1, 2026. Most of its $58.2 million of reported liabilities are the non-cash deferred tax item and liabilities settled in shares, so neither is deducted. Its roughly 21.6 million warrants are left out because they are far out of the money at these values. The cases. We can credit only what is secured or proven. A first product launch with no contracted customers is neither, so none of the cases includes any sales. What separates the cases is how much of today's cash the existing plan consumes before revenue either shows up or does not. Bear, $0.00 a share: the late-2026 launch produces no meaningful orders and spending continues through 2027 at the first-half 2026 pace, about $11.5 million of overhead plus about $25 million a year into the joint venture. That uses up the entire $41.4 million by around the third quarter of 2027. The remaining joint-venture commitment is larger than the cash on hand. Nothing is left for today's shareholders, and anything beyond that would be paid for by issuing new shares. With no debt, shareholders owe nothing more, so we show zero rather than a negative number. Strict arithmetic on this pace of spending would put the existing shares at about minus 40 cents. Base, $0.16 a share: the company funds the rest of the 2026 plan, about $6 million of overhead plus about $12.5 million into the joint venture, and runs its overhead through 2027, about $12 million. That spending is worth about $29.6 million today at a 6% discount rate. Against $41.4 million of cash and no debt, about $11.9 million is left. Joint-venture payments for 2027 are left out because they are owed only under budgets not yet agreed. If they are made at the 2025-26 pace, this case falls to about zero. Bull, $0.32 a share: only the rest of the 2026 plan draws on today's cash, about $18.2 million in present value, leaving about $23.2 million against no debt. That happens either because early customer orders start to carry the business in 2027 or because management stops spending if they do not arrive. What would make this wrong. The entire upside of this stock rests on AirJoule selling systems or water at a profit, and none of that is in these numbers because none of it has happened yet. Signed, priced customer orders, water purchase agreements or Carrier volume commitments, followed by gross margins in reported results, would create an earnings stream we could value, and it could be worth far more than these figures. On the other side, further joint-venture write-downs, a delayed launch or more share issuance at low prices would push the value toward the bear case.