$17.70
$64.90
bear $17.70
base $43.10
bull $64.90
margin of safety $24.00
market price* $27.50
American Integrity Insurance Group is a Florida-based homeowners insurer, founded in 2006 and public since May 2025. It writes homeowners, condo, landlord and manufactured-home policies through about 1,300 independent agents, mostly in Florida (about 95% of its private-market premium), with a small but growing presence in Georgia, South Carolina and, since January 2026, North Carolina. It also assumes policies from state-run Citizens Property Insurance under a legislated take-out program that began for the company in 2024. Because it is an insurer, we value its owner earnings after interest directly; it has essentially no borrowings (about $0.4 million of long-term debt), so there is no debt to subtract in any case. What the numbers show. Owner earnings (operating cash flow, less the cash released by growth in insurance liabilities and receivables, less stock compensation, less maintenance capital spending) were about $37 million in 2024 and $84 million in 2025. The two-year window is all the filings support and we use it as the anchor: about $61 million, or roughly $3.10 per share on the current 19.6 million shares. 2024 included Hurricanes Helene and Milton and produced an 81% combined ratio; 2025 had no significant Florida storm activity, a 64% combined ratio, and a sharp gain from the Citizens take-out policies. Neither year is treated as normal on its own. In the first half of 2026 revenue rose about 41% to $206 million but net income fell to $54 million from $66 million, as margins move back toward the middle of the two-year range. That corroborates that 2025 margins were unusually high. What is credited and what is not. Growth from the anchor to the base case starting level is limited to the premium already written and earned into 2026: revenue was up 26% in the first quarter and 55% in the second, unearned premiums rose another $74 million in the first half, and the company has nearly doubled its equity to about $370 million since the IPO. We credit a first-year step to about $72 million in the base case, well below the 128% owner-earnings growth of 2025, and no growth after that. Not credited: further Citizens take-outs (legislated, but volumes and terms are not committed), new-state expansion, rate increases, and any market-share gains. Stock compensation began in 2025 ($10.6 million) and is deducted as a real cost. Base case: about $72 million a year for ten years, then a 6% annual decline as competition, rate regulation and reinsurance costs erode the franchise. The business is worth roughly $845 million, or about $43 per share; debt is negligible, so equity value is about the same.
Bear case: about $37 million a year, the 2024 storm-year level with no credit for the larger premium base, plus a one-time after-tax hit of about $50 million in year three from a heavy storm season; the company's reinsurance covers the first two storms in a season above a net retention of $35 million, but the third and later events have only $85 million of cover, and its recoverables from reinsurers are large, and a 10% annual decline after year ten. That is worth roughly $347 million, about $17.70 per share, roughly its current book value.
Bull case: about $100 million a year, which is the first-half 2026 revenue pace at a margin between 2024 and 2025 levels, held for ten years with a 4% annual decline afterward; worth about $1.27 billion, or about $65 per share. Debt is negligible in all three cases. What could make this wrong. Florida hurricane risk is concentrated: one very large storm, or three storms in one season, could cost far more than the retention. Regulators can force rate rollbacks or refunds when loss ratios look favorable, which the company itself lists as a risk. The 2025 margin cannot be repeated in a normal storm year. The company has only about 20 quarters of results in the public record, and only two years of audited history, so the normal earnings level is less certain than for an older company. The margin-of-safety price is near $24; from that price the base case implies about 20% a year over roughly three years.