Alset Inc. (AEI) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Alset Inc. is a diversified holding company led by its founder, Chairman and CEO Chan Heng Fai, who is also its largest stockholder. Its operating businesses are small: 132 single-family rental homes and lot sales near Houston, Texas, plus minor digital and consumer-product units. Revenue was about $4.5 million in 2025. The company's real weight is in what it owns: $25.2 million of cash at December 31, 2025, $29.6 million (book value) of rental real estate, and $55.1 million (book value) of equity stakes, including 43.6% of DSS Inc., 36.9% of American Pacific Financial and 29.0% of Sharing Services Global. Total liabilities are only about $6.9 million against $136.6 million of assets, and there are 38.9 million shares outstanding after a large share issuance in 2025 (9.2 million a year earlier). The operating business does not earn a profit that can be capitalized. Cash from operations was $5.2 million in 2024 but negative $5.9 million in 2025 and negative $9.2 million in the first half of 2026. Both years are distorted: 2024 benefited from lot sales at the Lakes at Black Oak project, and 2025 was hit by purchases of trading securities that run through operating cash flow. After subtracting working-capital changes, stock compensation ($2.4 million in 2025) and maintenance capital spending, our owner earnings were about $0.58 per share in 2024 and negative $0.48 per share in 2025. Two years that far apart, driven by one-off property sales and securities trades, do not define a steady earning power, so we did not anchor on a median of earnings. We valued the company as the sum of what it demonstrably holds, less the cash it keeps burning. We did not credit any growth: no signed contract, backlog or repeatable expansion pattern supports it. Bear case, about $1.05 per share: the company keeps burning about $9 million a year (the first-half 2026 pace) for three years, which uses up essentially all of the $25.2 million of cash. Rental homes are worth 60% of book value and the equity stakes 40% of book value, reflecting the losses already recorded on these holdings (unrealized and realized securities losses of several million dollars in 2025) and the concentration in a few related-party companies. Base case, about $1.64: the burn stays at the 2025 level of about $6 million for five years, again absorbing the cash, with rental homes at 85% and equity stakes at 70% of book value. Bull case, about $2.50: the burn falls to about $3 million a year, in line with the roughly break-even second half of 2025, and the homes and stakes are worth full book value. Book equity is about $3.33 per share, and we do not credit that as a floor because the largest asset, the equity stakes, depends on the market value of other small companies. What would make this wrong: if the equity stakes are worth materially more or less than our haircuts imply, or if cash burn ends sooner or continues longer than assumed, values move directly with them. Several of the holdings and loans are with related parties, which is a further reason a wide margin of safety is required. The margin-of-safety price of $0.55 is roughly a third of the base value, reflecting a complex holding structure, an operating business that consumes cash, and valuations that rest on book values instead of earnings. Share counts changed sharply in 2025, so per-share history is shown for only two years.