Acrivon Therapeutics, Inc. (ACRV) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Acrivon Therapeutics is a clinical-stage cancer drug developer. Its lead candidate, ACR-368 (prexasertib, in-licensed from Eli Lilly), is a CHK1/2 inhibitor in a Phase 2b single-arm trial (ACR-368-201) in endometrial and other tumors, paired with the company's OncoSignature test that predicts which patients will respond. A second candidate, ACR-2316, is earlier. The company has never generated revenue from a drug and states it does not expect to in the foreseeable future. Our approach values what a business actually earns, after stock compensation and the capital spending needed to stay in business. Acrivon has earned nothing: operating cash flow was about negative $64 million in 2025 and negative $66 million in 2024, and stock compensation of about $15 million a year adds to the true cost. Owner earnings per share, on that basis, were roughly negative $9.01 in 2021, negative $9.00 in 2022, negative $2.55 in 2023, negative $2.30 in 2024 and negative $2.09 in 2025. The per-share figures for 2021 and 2022 are inflated by the small pre-IPO share count. Bear, base and bull cases are each valued at $0 per share. The reason is the same for all three: nothing that would produce earnings is yet secured. The company has no approved product and no contracted sales. Interim results (a 39% confirmed response rate in endometrial cancer) are encouraging but are trial data, not approval, and a positive Phase 2b readout, an FDA filing or a future approval are events that have not happened, so we do not credit them. We also do not credit the company's cash of $118.6 million at year-end 2025 as value, because the company is spending it at roughly $65 million a year; the filing says it funds operations into the second quarter of 2027, after which additional capital is needed. What would make this wrong: a successful registrational readout for ACR-368 and an FDA approval would create a real product with real earnings, and the shares could be worth well above zero. The valuation would be revisited once the business has an approved product or contracted revenue.